Study On Spatio-temporal Distribution Of Rural Construction Land Consolidation Based On CA-Markov Model

At present,under the background of industrialization and urbanization and urban agglomerative effectiveness,urban construction land is expanding,and the cultivated land resources in rural areas are constantly being expropriated by construction land,which has caused food security problems.At the same time,the rural population gathered to the urban,but the total amount of rural construction land area is still increasing,and the spatial irregular distribution shows the lack of planning,control weakness.In the face of the double pressure of the urban construction demand land and cultivated land protection,rural construction land consolidation and the intensive use of rural construction land are breakthrough or key to solve the land use contradiction.Nowadays,the government land system departments have been on the construction of land in rural areas of the disorderly and inefficient use of construction land,through the nationwide promotion of rural construction land consolidation,increase or decrease of urban and rural construction land,rural resident land consolidation and other means to intervene and guide.However,the consolidation project is complicated,the local government lack of the comprehensive understanding of consolidation policy and the local characteristics while the implementation,the consolidation lack of emphasis and the promotion is slow,therefore the effects are limited.Based on this background,this study selected Hongze County,Huai'an City,Jiangsu Province,which is underdeveloped in Jiangsu Province,as the research area.Based on the actual situation of the "double reduction" pilot scheme of land use planning and construction land in Hongze County,select 2005,2010 and 2015 as the basic data of the study,supplemented by the socio-economic data and planning documents of the study area,the CA-Markov model was used to simulate the construction land of Hongze County in 2020 and 2025 future time points of the amount and space changes by means of the data analysis of ArcGIS and IDRISI software,combined with the study area of rural construction land consolidation suitability evaluation results for the Hongze County rural construction land consolidation work to provide the timing of the recommendations and comments.The main results of this study are as follows:(1)Based on the three time point of land use data in Hongze County,this paper sets up the change condition of construction land transformation,and simulates the change of rural construction land in 2020 and 2025 by CA-Markov model.It is found that in the planning element control under the simulation forecast,the scale of rural construction land to be controlled,such as the combination of consolidation suitability evaluation results for consolidation work,which can effectively reduce the rural construction land idle waste,to achieve orderly and efficient use of rural construction land.(2)In this study,the constraints of cultivated land protection factors were added to suitability evaluation and simulation forecasting,and the expansion of rural construction land was restricted,which indicated that the protection of cultivated land resources must be established under the condition of limited land resources Control the size of the construction site as the basis,otherwise the "red land" must be affected.The planning and utilization of rural construction land is of great significance to the problem of urban construction land pressure,the pressure of cultivated land resources in rural areas and the unbalanced land use structure of urban and rural areas.(3)The selection of the model data has important influence on the accuracy of the research results.The optimal scale of the study area is 60 x 60m from the prediction scale of 30 x 30m to 80 x 80m.(4)Through the adjustment of the land conversion rules(suitability image set),the different simulation results of scenario I and scenario II are realized,and the results of different research are generated under different constraints.It verifies the effective control effect of the planning for the rural construction land,and improves the accuracy of the research through the comparative analysis,which can help to research the mechanism and the accurate influence of the land use transformation.