Spatiotemporal Simulation Of Construction Land And Cultivated Land In Dianchi Basin Based On MCE-CA-Markov Model

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,with the acceleration of urbanization in China,the scale of cities and towns has continued to expand,and the contradiction between construction land and cultivated land protection has become increasingly prominent.Under the premise of ensuring food security,strictly observing the red line of cultivated land,improving the quality of cultivated land,and rationally regulating the development space of urban construction land have become prominent issues that China urgently needs to solve.In this paper,the Dianchi Lake Basin is used as the research area.Based on the high-scoring remote sensing image data,ENVI remote sensing information extraction tools are used to extract the land use cover information in the four periods of 2000,2006,2012,and 2018.Analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of construction land and cultivated land in the Dianchi Lake Basin using various mathematical statistical methods such as expansion intensity and expansion speed.By constructing the MCE-CA-Markov model,the land use and cover changes in the Dianchi Lake Basin will be simulated and predicted in 2024,in order to explore the interactive relationship between construction land and cultivated land in the future.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)The area of construction land in the Dianchi Lake Basin increased rapidly during the period of 2000-2018.In 2018,the area of construction land was about four times that of 2000.The speed of expansion from rapid expansion to high-speed expansion,the expansion rate is the fastest period of the entire research period.The spatial distribution of construction land in the Dianchi Basin is mainly centered in the main urban area,and the center of gravity shifts to the southeast.The expansion of construction land in the Dianchi Lake Basin from 2000 to 2018 was mainly characterized by "internal filling","jumping development",and "continuous clustering".(2)The area of cultivated land in the Dianchi Lake Basin was more and more scattered during the period of 2000-2018,and the phenomenon of non-agricultural transfer was serious.The area of arable land decreased by almost three times from 2000 to 2018,and the dynamics of arable land showed fluctuations.The fastest decline period was from 2006 to 2012.The spatial distribution of cultivated land is gradually receding.The direction of the center of gravity of the cultivated land turned to the northwest from 2000-2006,and turned to the southwest from 2006-2012.The offset distance was as high as 8306 m.(3)Based on the perspective of game theory,the quantity and spatial-temporal evolution of the conversion of construction land and cultivated land resources in the Dianchi Lake Basin from 2000 to 2018 were discussed.The results show that the conversion of construction land in the three periods is much larger than that of cultivated land.Finally,from the perspective of various districts and counties in the Dianchi Lake Basin,the area change rate characteristics of construction land and cultivated land were explored.(4)The MCE-CA-Markov model is constructed by using driving factors such as elevation,slope,distance from river,distance from administrative district,distance from road,distance from railway and other driving factors.The reliability of the model simulation was verified by accuracy evaluation.The model is used to simulate the prediction of land use change in 2024.The forecast results show that there will be no significant change in land use types in 2024,the expansion speed and spatial scope of construction land will become reasonable,and the space eroded by cultivated land for construction land will gradually decrease.The degree of coordination between the two is on the rise.(5)Based on the research method of combining theory with demonstration,this paper clarifies the temporal and spatial evolution law of construction land and cultivated land resources in Dianchi Basin under the background of rapid urbanization,and simulates and predicts the change trend of construction land and cultivated land in the future according to the interactive relationship between construction land and cultivated land in Dianchi basin.