Research On Risk Identification And Evaluation Of ZB's New Product Development Project Portfolio

With the intensification of market competition,the development of new products has become an important means for enterprises to move forward.New product development projects may bring high returns and strong competitiveness to enterprises,but they also have high risks due to many uncertain factors and long periods.It is very common for a company to launch multiple new product development projects at the same time.For the purpose of increasing revenue and reducing risks,the company will implement multiple projects to form a project portfolio.It is especially important to make a scientific evaluation of the risks of the alternative portfolio and to select the optimal portfolio based on the evaluation results,so as to maximize the strategic goals of the enterprise.This paper taking ZB company as the research object,first identifies and analyzes the risks and interactions of ZB's new product development projects to build a ZB company's new product development project portfolio risk assessment index system,and uses AHP-entropy combination weighting method to calculate the weight of each indicator.The expert scoring method is used to obtain the risk degree of each item for each index,and the risk of single item of each item is calculated.Based on the qualitative analysis of the interactions in the project portfolio,the niche overlap method is used to quantify the risk interaction coefficient between each project in all possible project portfolios and the risk of each project after the interaction.Then,100 reference projects are found as reference points for this evaluation.The target-oriented multi-reference point attribute value model is used to evaluate the risk of each project and project portfolio,and the project portfolio with the risk satisfying requirements is selected accordingly.After evaluation,it is concluded that the risks of the projects A,B,C and D in the project portfolio and the overall risk of the project portfolio are all satisfactory.Therefore,the project consisting of projects A,B,C and D is selected.At the same time,the paper also compares the decision-making results obtained by using the method without considering the interaction between projects and using the traditional evaluation method without considering multiple reference points,and the findings are unreasonable,which also confirms the scientific rationality of considering the interaction between projects and using the goal-oriented multi-reference point attribute value evaluation method.The risk assessment and decision-making process of the paper aims to provide reference for ZB company's new product development portfolio and risk management,improve the probability of success of new product development project,and have very important theoretical and practical significance for ZB company.