Research On Risk Evaluation Of Subway Commercial Development Based On Combination Weighting Method

With the rapid development of China's urbanization process,more and more cities have begun to build subway transportation systems.The development of subway transportation not only greatly eased the urban traffic pressure,but also brought green and low-carbon travel modes.It also promoted the joint development of above-ground and underground land resources and the comprehensive utilization of surrounding commercial resources.Although the commercial combination of commercial and subway has great economic potential and commercial value,there are many unavoidable risks in the development of commercial projects of subways.These risks make the income of commercial development projects of subways very uncertain.It may cause huge losses to development companies and society.Therefore,on the basis of ensuring the normal operation of the subway and creating social value,it is an urgent problem to be solved by applying scientific and reasonable evaluation methods to evaluate the commercial development risks of the subway,so that the development enterprises can flexibly prevent and avoid risks.Firstly,based on the many risks faced in the commercial development process of the subway,this paper based on the previous research,read a large number of relevant literature,and made a theoretical review of the commercial development and risk management of the subway;Secondly,according to the life cycle theory of the project,the subway commercial project is divided into five development stages,and the risk factors in each stage are identified and analyzed in detail,and the frequency statistics method,the two-dimensional risk evaluation matrix and the Delphi method are used for risk screening.Filtering,and finally establish a relatively complete subway commercial development risk management system constructed by 5 criteria layers and 20 indicator layers;Thirdly,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on AHP-entropy weight optimization is constructed.The subjective weight is determined by AHP method,the objective weight is determined by entropy weight method,and the comprehensive weight is calculated according to the preference of decision makers.Then use the fuzzy theory to carry out the second-level comprehensive evaluation of the commercial development risk of the subway,which lays a certain foundation for therisk evaluation of the commercial development of the subway.Finally,taking the subway business of Nanjing Xiongzhou Station as an example,using the index system established by this paper and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of AHP-entropy weight optimization,the risk is quantitatively calculated,and the risk level is obtained.Based on the evaluation results,the project is proposed.The development of risk prevention and avoidance suggestions at various stages provides a reference for the development of risk management,which has certain theoretical and practical significance.