Simulation Spatial-Temporal Change Of Land Use In Hubei Province Based On CLUMondo Model

At the end of the 20th century,global land use change was widely concerned by researchers from all walks of life,and land use change became a global research hot spot.Since China's reform and opening up,the economy has developed rapidly,the urbanization rate is rapid,the land is gradually occupied by built-up areas,and the land use pattern has undergone tremendous changes,which has brought about a series of human-land conflicts,ecological environment and other problems.As a major grain production base in the central region of China and a key hub in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,Hubei Province has become an important strategic fulcrum province for the Realization of the Central Region's Rise Plan.In the past 40 years,the Hubei Provincial Party Committee has increased grain output and there have been a large number of enclosing fields,excessive reclamation,and unauthorized felling.This has led to serious damage to the forest ecosystem and aquatic ecosystem in Hubei Province;This makes the population density of Hubei Province increase,the built-up area expands,and the land use pattern of Hubei Province is regionally complicated.This article takes Hubei Province as an research area,based on the change of land use pattern in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2015,chooses a larger-scale land use simulation model,predicts the future change of land use spatial pattern in Hubei Province,and gains an in-depth understanding of Hubei Province the process of land use change makes reasonable land use planning for the realization of the plan for the rise of central China,and provides a certain reference for the formulation of land development policies.This article adopts the CLUMondo model,based on the 30m resolution land use raster data of Hubei Province released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences resource and environmental data cloud platform in 2005 and 2015,with 2005 as the base period data and 2015 as the inspection year data,using the longest simulation year of the model is 30 years,which predicts the evolution of the spatial pattern of land use in Hubei Province to 2035.First,use ArcGIS 10.6 software and mathematical statistical methods to calculate and analyze the land use change and land use spatial pattern evolution characteristics of Hubei Province from 2005 to 2015;second,select 14 main driving factors,and use the regression analysis module of the CLUMondo model to analyze the driving factors the collinearity between them and the correlation between land use types and driving factors are calculated.The AUC values at 6 different spatial scales are compared,and the spatial scales with relatively high comprehensive AUC values are selected as the future land in Hubei use the best spatial scale to simulate the spatial pattern evolution;Based on the GM(1,1)model,the equal latitude gray number compensation method is adopted to calculate the land use demand files required by the model year by year,that is,the building area(km2)and staple crops(Tons)of Hubei Province from 2005 to 2035.Based on the above calculation results,through debugging The CLUMondo model,which simulates the land use situation in Hubei Province in 2015,enters each set of land use simulation results into a Map Comparison Kit(MCK),and the actual land use data in 2015 from the overall and specific to each land use type Kappa the index is compared until the highest simulation accuracy is obtained,and the optimal land use simulation results and optimal simulation parameters of this simulation are obtained.Finally,based on the optimal simulation parameters,Natural Development Scenario,Food Security Scenario and Ecological Security Scenario are constructed,the land use pattern changes in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2035 were simulated and compared,and the optimal planning scheme suitable for the land use development in Hubei Province was obtained.The research results are as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2015,the land use change in Hubei Province was mainly due to the decrease in cropland,forest,grassland and unused land,and the increase in water body and built-up area.The increase area of built-up is 1478.66km2,the dynamic degree of land use is 2.15%,that is,the built-up has changed significantly in the past ten years,the social and economic development is rapid,and the urbanization speed is fast;the cropland in Hubei Province is mainly distributed in the Jianghan Plain,and the reduction area is 1232.65 km2,the dynamic degree of land use is-0.18%,of which 79.98%of the reduced area of cropland is occupied by built-up,which consumes more cropland;the forest is concentrated in the high mountain area of Hubei Province,the reduction area is 318.40km2,the land use dynamic degree is-0.03%,of which 82.72%of the reduction area of forest is converted to built-up,although the reduction of forest land is not large,But the occupation of built-up is more serious;the grassland is mainly scattered in the forest in the west of Hubei Province,the reduction area is 34.30km2,and the land use dynamic degree is-0.05%,of which 68.00%of the reduction area of grassland is converted to built-up,also 20.63%converted to forest,the grassland distribution area in Hubei Province is small,and the range of change is not large,but grassland degradation around built-up should be emphasized;the water body dynamic degree is 0.09%,which shows a small increase,the increase area is 115.64km2,the new part is transferred from cropland,forest and unused land;the unused land reduction area is 8.95km2,and the land use dynamic degree is-0.24%,reduce the area almost used by built-up.In summary,built-up in central and northwestern Hubei Province has significantly expanded,while built-up expansion in the central area mainly occupies high-quality cropland,and mountainous areas in the west are mainly characterized by the occupation of forest and grassland.The characteristics are obvious on the eastern and southwestern parts are high-altitude mountains,and the dynamic changes of land types are not significant.(2)After comparing and analyzing the regression analysis results between various categories and driving factors at 6 spatial scales,the AUC values of grassland and built-up are the highest at the 500m spatial scale,but the cropland,forest,water body and unused land are at the 200m scale.The AUC value of the place is the highest.Considering comprehensively,the AUC value between each category and driving factor is the highest at the 200m spatial scale,so the 200m spatial scale is selected to simulate the land use pattern in Hubei Province.(3)Natural Development Scenario:2005-2035,built-up in Hubei Province will increase.Cropland,forest,grassland and unused land will be built,and the water area will remain unchanged.Among them,the expansion of built-up is the most significant,with an increase of 6606.32km2,the newly added built-up mainly appears in the central plains of Wuhan,Huanggang,Huangshi,and the surrounding areas of Shiyan,Enshi,Yichang,and Xiangyang within the city,the main performance is the occupation of cropland,forest and grassland;the area of cropland has decreased significantly,with a reduction of 3550.04km2,which is mainly manifested by a significant decrease in the periphery of Wuhan,Huanggang,Xiangyang,Yichang,and Shiyan and Enshi Prefecture;forest has increased significantly,with an increased area of 775.04km2,mainly for the return of cropland to forests in Xiangyang,Shiyan,Shennongjia District and Enshi Prefecture which are located in the west of Hubei Province.The overall performance is that the built-up is newly added in the Wuhan City Circle and the surrounding low-lying and suitable climate cities along the Han River and the Yangtze River Basin;the grassland is seriously degraded.If the land use method of Hubei Province is planned according to this scenario,it will inevitably aggravate the contradiction between people and land in Hubei Province,and gradually deteriorate the ecological environment.(4)Food Security Scenario:2005-2035,the land use structure of Hubei Province has not changed significantly,built-up and water area shows an increasing trend,and cropland,forest,grassland and unused land show a decreasing trend.Among them,the increase in built-up is more obvious,with an increase area of 2317.72km2,mainly in the cities of Wuhan and Huangshi in the middle,Xiangyang and Yichang in the west,and within Shiyan and Enshi in the northwest,conversion of forest and grassland;the area of water area increased,the increase area was 115.2km2,mainly appeared along the Yangtze River in the southern part of Xianning;the area of cropland decreased,the decrease area was 1691.44km2,mainly appeared in the cities around Wuhan and Yichang,and within Shiyan City and Enshi Prefecture,mainly as Occupied by built-up;the area of forest,grassland and unused land all decreased,the reduction area was 401.48km2,163.12km2,62.68km2,all occupied by built-up.In summary,under this scenario,the overall land use change is small,the city is expanding at a slow rate,the cultivated land consumption is within a controllable range,and the occupation of ecological land is very small,which can not only maintain food production but also reduce damage to ecological land.(5)Ecological Security Scenario:2005-2035,Hubei Province's land use types and areas have generally changed as forest and built-up increase,water area remain stable,and cropland,grassland,and unused land show a decreasing trend.Among them,built-up has increased significantly,with a newly-added area of 2654.32km2,mainly in the urban fringe of Wuhan,Ezhou and Huangshi,northeast of Huanggang and Huangshi in the east,Yichang in the west,Xiangyang and Shiyan within the prefecture,the new built-up is mainly occupied by cropland,forest and grassland;the area of cropland has decreased significantly,with a reduction area of 4757.64km2.It is occupied by built-up in the cities around Wuhan,Ezhou,Huanggang,Huangshi and Enshi Prefecture in the southwest,and covered by forest in Xianning,Xiangyang,Yichang and Shiyan;the forest increased significantly,with an increase area of 2222.72km2,mainly manifested in returning cropland to forest in the southeast of Xianning and the southwest of Xiangyang,the west of Yichang,and the southwest of Shiyan.In summary,under this scenario,the land use change in Hubei Province is relatively large.At the same time as the expansion of built-up,a large number of conversion of cropland to forests occurred,which significantly reduced the area of cropland.If the future land use method is planned according to this scenario,although the protection of the ecological environment has achieved significant results,it will affect the grain output and cannot meet people's grain needs.Based on the above analysis,under the Natural Development Scenario,the built-up in Hubei Province has grown too much,and the consumption of cropland,forest and grassland and other types of land is serious,that is,it cannot meet the demand for food production,and the ecological environment of Hubei Province has become worse.Under the Food Security Scenario,the reduction in the area of cropland in Hubei Province is controlled,and the food security is relatively guaranteed,it also controls the degree of reduction of ecological land,and does not hinder the social and economic development needs of Hubei Province.In the Ecological Security Scenario,forest,grassland and water area in Hubei Province are protected,socioeconomic development is not hindered too much,but the reduction in arable land area is relatively large,which cannot meet the needs of Hubei Province at that time for grain output.Therefore,this study believes that Food Security Scenario setting is more in line with Hubei's adoption in future land use planning.It can be based on Food Security Scenario setting and based on scientific methods or means to make the land use structure more reasonable and continuously in Hubei Province.While developing the social economy,it satisfies people's longing for a better life.