Dynamic Analysis Of Evolutionary Game In Operation Risk Based On Cross-Border Logistics Alliance

With the continuous development of regional economic integration and the upgrading of people's consumption level,cross-border e-commerce has become an important way to promote the development of regional economy and trade,and the diversification of cross-border e-commerce development makes it put forward higher demand for cross-border e-commerce logistics operation.As the business process of cross-border e-commerce logistics is complex and affected by a variety of factors,related logistics enterprises pay more and more attention to the operational risks in their business processes,and control the operational risks of cross-border logistics business by establishing alliances and other modes.This paper by means of cross-border electricity logistics alliance business operation of the risk analysis,and the operational risk classification,at the same time combining system dynamics and evolutionary game theory,from the Angle of system alliance members in different operation simulation analysis was made on the strategy of risk,the cross-border electronic business logistics alliance in reality to provide theoretical reference for operational risk control,and provide decision support for business operation of related companies.Firstly,this paper summarizes the risks existing in the business operation of cross-border e-commerce logistics alliance,analyzes its characteristics,and summarizes the research results on the operational risks of cross-border e-commerce logistics alliance and the research methods used in this paper.Secondly,by taking "One Belt And One Road cross-border e-commerce logistics cooperation alliance" as an example,the current situation and characteristics of its operation risks are analyzed on the basis of previous studies.Secondly,based on the evolutionary game theory and combining the impact of different operational risks of cross-border e-commerce logistics alliance on the profit and loss of member enterprises,this paper makes a game analysis of its decision-making behavior,and discusses the differences and similarities in the evolutionary equilibrium strategies and stable paths of domestic and foreign logistics enterprises in the alliance under the conditions of the existence of punishment mechanism.Finally through to the related simulation expert consultation in the field of management science,based on system dynamics of cross-border electronic business logistics alliance evolutionary game model of operational risk,using the simulation software Vensim to unionparticipation enterprise under different operational risk,the change of the business strategy of the simulation,based on the analysis of simulation results,points out that cross-border electronic business logistics alliance should take various measures to perfect union operation risk prevention mechanism,and establishing reasonable punishment mechanism,cooperative enterprises to prevent speculative behavior,in order to achieve the purpose of effectively circumvent the risk of alliance.