Analysis Of The Relation Between Modern Logistics Industry And Economic Growth In Nanchang City

Logistics industry plays a more and more important role in the development of modern economy.It has gradually become a new growth point of regional economic development.The development of logistics industry with its own characteristics and competitive advantages is conducive to improving the influence and radiation of urban economy and promoting the sustained and stable economic growth.Logistics runs through many important links of the national economy.It can provide efficient services for many factors of production,such as human flow,business flow,capital flow and information flow.At the same time,logistics also plays a great role in the integration of regional resources,expanding employment,optimizing industrial structure and promoting economic growth.Combining domestic and foreign research and logistics theory,this paper expounds the concept of logistics industry development and the role of regional economy,and provides theoretical basis for later research.Secondly,it analyses the current situation of logistics industry development and regional economic development in Nanchang,and summarizes the advantages and disadvantages in the current development process.Using principal component analysis,two main indicators,namely road mileage and total freight volume,are selected to reflect the level of logistics industry in Nanchang.Then,the quantitative relationship between logistics development and economy in Nanchang is studied by using impulse response,variance analysis,cointegration test,Granger causality test and other empirical methods.The impulse response results show that there is an obvious dynamic relationship between logistics industry and regional economy by analyzing impulse response function.The development of logistics industry has played a certain role in promoting regional economy.However,the impact of logistics infrastructure on regional economy lags behind,which indicates that the investment and infrastructure construction of logistics industry must be operated through industry in regional economy.It takes a period of time to play a role,infiltrate or even expand;the regional economy has a significant positive impact on the indicators of logisticsindustry;according to the results of co-integration test,there are three co-integration relationships among per capita GDP,road mileage and cargo transport volume in Nanchang at the 5% significant level,which indicates that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between them,combined with the trend of time series change.According to Granger causality test results,highway mileage is not the Granger cause of per capita GDP in Nanchang,but total freight volume is the Granger cause of per capita GDP in Nanchang,while per capita GDP in Nanchang is the Granger cause of road mileage and total freight volume.It shows that the regional economy of Nanchang has promoted the development of logistics industry in Nanchang,and regional logistics also has a pulling effect on the economy.Both of them promote each other.However,combined with the above conclusions,the pulling force is not strong enough and the total transport volume needs to be further expanded.Finally,on the basis of the above empirical analysis results,the corresponding policy recommendations for the development of modern logistics industry in Nanchang are put forward.