Research On The Factors Affecting The Prepayment Behavior Of Mortgage Loan Securitization

With the improvement of China's economic level and the leap-forward development of the financial sector,the development of housing mortgage loan securitization has also made a qualitative leap in China.The mortgage securitization was first born in the United States in the 1960 s,and the rise of this product opened up a new source of funding for the development and rehabilitation of the housing industry.However,the development process in China is relatively short,and the scope of business development is relatively small.Due to the subprime mortgage crisis,China's securitization development has been stagnant for some time.Therefore,it is necessary for us to conduct in-depth research on the development of mortgage securitization in the current context to avoid triggering the financial crisis again.This paper first introduces the research background and significance of the influencing factors of prepayment behavior of mortgage securitization,describes the operation principle and operation mechanism of RMBS,reviews the development history of RMBS in China,and analyzes the risks in the development process of China.Including prepayment risk,credit risk and related legal risks.Secondly,through the research and analysis of each influencing factor in the mortgage securitization,the impact of the changes of various factors on the prepayment behavior of mortgage securitization is discussed in detail.The influencing factors include the influence of traditional concepts on prepayment behavior,borrower income level,house price,mortgage interest rate,and capital return rate.Through theoretical analysis,the correlation between various influencing factors and prepayment behavior is obtained.Thirdly,this paper uses the "Jianyuan 2007-1RMBS" mortgage-backed securities as a case to conduct an empirical analysis.On the basis of introducing the basic situation of “Jianyuan 2007-1RMBS”,the participating entities and the transaction structure,a single monthly repayment rate is proposed to measure the prepayment behavior.The trust tracking rating report of “Jianyuan 2007-1RMBS” from January2010 to December 2018 was selected,and the prepayment rate was calculated in a single month.Then the vector error correction model was used to empirically analyze the relevant influencing factors.test.Finally,aiming at the development background and development status of China's current mortgage loan securitization,combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of relevant influencing factors,it puts forward some suggestions for preventing the risk of prepayment.