Structural Analysis And Economic Crisis Modeling Of Two-layers Networks Of International Investment And Trade

With the progress of economic globalization and integration,economic commu-nication between countries have been more and more intimate and multitudinous.The evolutions of international trade and investment also become more and more important for understanding the global economic and political landscape.We first build the In-ternational Trade Network and the International Investment Network,and investigate their structural properties from a complex networks perspective,then build a model to simulate the propagation process of the economic crisis.The world is treated as a network consisting of hundreds of nodes,where each node represents a country,and there is an edge between two nodes if there are some economical relationships between these two countries.By calculating the average de-gree,average weight,average shortest path length and clustering coefficient,we find that international trade network is more denser than international investment network,while its clustering coefficient is lower than international investment network's.Be-sides,the average degree of the two-layers network is almost equal to the average de-gree of the international investment network,which shows that if there is investment relation between the two countries,there would be trade relations between these two countries.Based on Detrended Fluctuation Analysis,we investigate the relationship-s between international trade/investment and spatial distance,and find that the longer distance between two countries,the smaller trade and investment volumes they carry in general.As time goes on,the impact of the geographical distance is gradually reduced.Moreover,we rank all countries in networks by PageRank algorithm,and find that dif-ferent countries have different roles in different networks.International trade has more stable community relations than international investment,which reflects that the trade is mainly affected by supply and demand and policy guidance,while the investment pursuing the maximization of benefits is more flexible and more rapid response to the economic crisis.Further,based on the two-layers network and classical infectious disease model,we construct and simulate the process of economic crisis on international trade and investment networks.The simulation results show that the loss is well fitted to the actual loss.In the global economic crisis,the international investment has an obvious impact on international trade,but the impact of international trade on international investment is very small.By counting the number of countries with different states in the two networks,we find that the impact of crisis in international investment network has been more stable by the end of 2009,while in the international trade network the crisis continues to spread and intensify until the end of 2010.Besides,the simulations also show Burkina Faso,Tanzania,Burundi,the Kyrgyz Republic,Maldives,Saint Lucia,Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have never been subjected to the global economic crisis,which is roughly in accord with reality.Besides,we also conclude that some nodes which are not so important in IIN,like China,suffer very little during global economic crisis in ITN,even they have many neighbours which are affected at different levels.