Study On Spatio-temporal Evolution And Driving Mechanism Of High Quality Development Of Agricultural Economy In China:A Multi-scale Spatial Perspective

The high quality development of agricultural economy is an important way to build a strong agricultural country.The agricultural economy has changed from "high speed growth" to "high quality development" and from "quantitative agriculture" to "quality agriculture" in China.At present,it is a general consensus that the level of high quality development of agricultural economy in China is low,and there are significant spatial differences among regions.It is particularly important to explore the temporal and spatial evolution of high quality development of agricultural economy in different spatial scales and its driving mechanism.Therefore,based on the multi-scale perspective,the in-depth analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution and driving mechanism of the high quality development of agricultural economy is not only conducive to the implementation of the national high quality development strategy,but also conducive to the overall and in-depth promotion of rural revitalization and speed up the process of building a strong agricultural country.Based on the data of high quality development of agricultural economy from 2010 to2020,we focus on the spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of multi-scale space from 4 regions,25 provinces and 236 prefecture-level cities.First of all,on the basis of measuring the high quality development level of agricultural economy in prefectural cities,the present situation,temporal and spatial evolution and spatial pattern of high quality development of agricultural economy in different spatial scales are compared,and the spatial correlation of high quality development of agricultural economy in different spatial scales is analyzed with the help of Moran index.Secondly,the spatial Dubin model is constructed to analyze the driving effects of high quality development of agricultural economy in different scales.Thirdly,the partial differential method is used to decompose the spatial effect to further clarify the direct and indirect effects of the high quality development of agricultural economy at different spatial scales.Finally,the multi-scale driving mechanism of high quality development of agricultural economy in China is deeply explored by comparing the differences of each driving factor in provincial scale and prefecture-level city scale.The results show that: Firstly,the overall level of high quality development of agricultural economy in China is not high,the whole country and four major regions have shown a "steady upward" trend since 2010,the provincial scale and the prefectural city scale show the distribution pattern of "east high and west low".The spatial agglomeration degree of provincial scale increases gradually,but the prefecture scale weakens,and there is a significant spatial positive correlation between provincial scale and prefectural city scale.However,the spatial agglomeration characteristics of prefecture-level city scale are stronger than those of provincial scale.Secondly,agricultural factor endowment structure,green financial development,innovation and entrepreneurship level,agricultural industry agglomeration and rural labor transformation play a driving effect on provincial scale and prefecture-level city scale,government digital agriculture attention only has driving effect on high quality development level of prefecture-level agricultural economy,different driving factors are sensitive to high quality development of multi-scale agricultural economy.Thirdly,the upgrading of agricultural factor endowment structure,the rise of green financial development level,the improvement of innovation and entrepreneurship level,the decrease of agricultural industrial agglomeration and the return of rural labor force can effectively drive the rise of the high quality development level of local agricultural economy.The green financial development of neighboring provinces(prefecture-level cities),agricultural factor endowment structure and agricultural industrial agglomeration can play spillover effects to promote the high quality development of local agricultural economy.However,the attention of government digital agriculture only plays a positive direct and indirect effect on the prefectural city scale,only plays a negative spillover effect on the provincial scale,and the rural labor transformation only has a negative spillover effect on the prefecture-level city scale.Fourthly,the driving mechanism of the high quality development of agricultural economy in China is driven by the structure of agricultural factor endowment and the transformation of rural labor force.The development of green finance,the attention of government digital agriculture is driven by the external drive,the level of innovation and entrepreneurship,and the agglomeration of agricultural industry are the core driving comprehensive mechanisms.The driving factors permeate the provincial scale and prefectural scale,and play a direct driving and indirect transmission role.We will jointly promote the high quality development of agricultural economy at different spatial scales.Finally,based on the conclusions,the following policy implications are drawn: Firstly,the differentiation policy should be formulated according to local conditions to promote the balanced development of agricultural economy with high quality.Secondly,improve the construction of the financial environment and increase investment in agricultural innovation and entrepreneurship.Thirdly,strengthen the positive spatial spillover effect and enhance the regional radiation driving ability.Fourthly,we should pay attention to the linkage development of different spatial scales and effectively improve the high quality development level of agricultural economy.