Regulation And Control On Social Risk Under The Influence Of PPP Projects' Product/Service Price

Public-Private-Partnership(PPP)is a model that the public sector and the private one provide public products or services through the establishment of a long-term and stable partnership.With China's economy entering the new normal,promoting the application of PPP model in the infrastructure field(transportation,municipal engineering,energy,medical and health,security housing project)could help relieve government financial pressures,improve the purchasing efficiency of public products and stimulate market vitality.Since 2014,PPP has ushered in an unprecedented opportunity in China and entered a period of rapid development.However,with the rapid growth of PPP project projects,the social impacts associated with them cannot be ignored.The price for the products or services of PPP projects(hereinafter referred to as PPP project price in the following thesis)is directly related to the interests of all participants,which has an important influence on the success of the projects and arouses much attention from the public.There are a number of PPP projects which failed due to outbreaks of social mass disturbances influenced by price factors.Therefore,it is of great significance to conduct in-depth analysis of social risks under the influence of PPP project price.Based on the social network of PPP project,this paper introduces the method of computational experiments to conduct a systematic research on the social risks under the influence of PPP project price and explore efficient risk control measures.Based on these the research goals,contents and methods are proposed and the research framework was deveploped in this part.The main contents include:(1)Identify research objects,content and methods.According to the research background,social mass incidents affected by the price of PPP projects have a serious threat to social stability.Through literature reviews on the PPP project price,social risks and computational experiment,shortcomings and trends of the current researches are summarized.Based on the above analysis the research objects,contents and methods were proposed.(2)Analyze the regulation and control on social risks of PPP projects from the theoretical aspect.This chapter determines the connotation of PPP project social risk through literature review and sorts out the process of social risk regulation and control on the basis of the theory of cybernetics.In addition,three key issues(regulatory targets,regulatory objectives,and regulatory measures)are answered.Finally,regulation of social risks are analyzed from the perspective of vulnerability,resilience and risk evolution.This chapter provides the theoretical basis for the study of regulation and control on social risks of PPP projects(3)Analyzing the social network of PPP projects under the influence of PPP project price.This chapter identifies the PPP project stakeholders and establishes the social network of PPP projects.In this social network,stakeholders are the nodes and the relationships between them are connections.Through the analysis of social network under the interference of price factors,the framework of social risk prediction are desgined.Finally,this chapter conclude that the social risk can be measured by overall characteristic parameters of the social network(vulnerability,resilience,etc.).(4)Construct the model of regulation and control on social risks of PPP projects.A research is conducted on the stakeholder of PPP projects to derive their sensitivity to PPP project price and ehavioral tendency from the perspective of “price-society-stakeholder”.The agent is used to replace the node on social setwork to make the static network dynamic.According to the results of above research,attributes and behavior rules of the agent are defined,then the Multi-Agent model for the evolution of stakeholder's emotions is constructed.The System Dynamics model is constructed to measure the relationship strength of the social network of PPP projects.Finally,this chapter determines the relationship between these two models and construct the computational experiment model of regulation and control on social risks of PPP projects.(5)Apply the computational experiment model to regulate and control the social risk under the influence of PPP project price.Western Harbour Tunnel is selected as the case,the background of the case is restored in the model.This chapter uses the computational experimental model to achieve the quantitative evaluation of social risks throughout the life cycle of the case project.Based on the result of social risk evaluation,risk control measures are put forwad from the perspective of vulnerability,resilience and social risk evolution.The computational experiment model is used to simulate these measures and select the effective measures.Finally,this chapter provides effective social risk control measures for Western Harbour Tunnel and suggestions for similar projects.