Social Risk Assessment Of PPP Projects Based On Computational Experiment

In China,the task of infrastructure building is still very havey in the future,transport facilities,housing security,public health facilities,rural infrastructure and environmental protection facilities constitute the main direction of future investment development.The application of PPP mode provides ample funding for local government to develop infrastructure,brings advanced technology and management skills,and also share risks with local gocernment.However,there are still many problems in the practical application of PPP mode,such as the imperfection of the project contract system,the poor performance of the project monitoring,the unreasonable risk sharing of the project and can not adapt to the changes of the project,the unreasonable distribution of project subsidy or income and so on.In particular,the Social Risk triggered by social events has seriously threatened the viability of PPP projects and the social stability of their areas.It has become an unavoidable source of interference in many stages of PPP projects.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to assess the social risk of PPP projects in life cycle.This paper tries to evaluate the social risk of PPP project based on the theory of social network and vulnerability,with the methods of multi-subject modeling and system dynamics.The main contents are as follows:The first chapter analyzes the seriousness of the social risk hazard in the current application of PPP mode,based on the background and the value of the topic.And then,literature reviews of the social risk,social network,vulnerability,and computational experiments are given,summarizes the shortcomings and trends of the current research and clear the research methods and technical lines.The second chapter studies the social risk theory,the vulnerability theory and the social network theory respectively.And then,it analyzes the connotation and characteristics of social risk and vulnerability,clarifies the relationship between vulnerability and risk,and expounds the theory of social network.In the third chapter,the method of PPP project social network construction is cleard,and the PPP project stakeholders as the network nodes are identified,and this chapter analyzes the relationship between the stakeholders to assign the line to the network.Then,it describes the quantitative description of social network characteristics,analyzes the relationship between vulnerability and network eigenvalues,and computes network vulnerability with network eigenvalues.Finally,we identify the life cycle social risk of PPP projects,identify the positive correlation between vulnerability and risk,and determine the social risk with network vulnerability.In the fourth chapter,the discrete selection model for the emotional inclination and evolution of the network individual in the process of PPP project is constructed.Then,the causal relationship between the influencing factors of the relationship between the stakeholders is analyzed,and the dynamic model of the relationship strength is established.Finally,the two models are integrated and the experimental model of social risk assessment of PPP project is constructed on Anylogic software.In the fifth chapter,the model is analyzed based on the case of Hong Kong Western Harbor Crossing.The evolution of the social networks of the project life cycle is simulated,and the trend of the relationship between the various stakeholders and the trend of the vulnerability of the whole social network are analyzed.In the sixth chapter,the conclusion and prospect of this paper are put forward according to the research results.The conclusions are that the operationof transfer of the project is most likely to be disturbed by social risks,and stakeholders of projects should pay attention to the influence of social risks,control strictly and take effective measures to reduce the influences of social risks.