Study On The Influence Of Inbound Tourism On Hainan's Economic Growth

Inbound tourism is an important part of tourism.It not only reflects the development level of tourism in a country or region,but also reflects the industrialization level and international maturity of tourism in a country or region.Therefore,the development of inbound tourism is of great significance to the development of tourism in Hainan.In recent years,Hainan's inbound tourism has developed rapidly,and the number of inbound tourists and foreign exchange income has been continuously rising.In addition,the construction of international tourist islands and the implementation of visa-free visas and tax-free shopping on outlying islands have made Hainan occupy the development of inbound tourism.Very strong advantage.Inbound tourism is becoming a new growth point for Hainan's economy,and it is playing an increasingly important role in social consumption,employment and related industries.Based on this background,it is particularly important to study the impact of inbound tourism on Hainan's economic growth.On the one hand,it can explore the contribution of inbound tourism to Hainan's economy,and on the other hand,it can provide practical support for the development of inbound tourism policies.This paper uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods for empirical analysis.In terms of qualitative,it systematically and systematically sorts out the development status of inbound tourism in Hainan;in quantitative aspects,through the establishment of vector autoregressive(VAR)model,using EViews software,using cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,etc.The method empirically analyzes the relationship between inbound tourism revenue and Hainan's economic growth.Finally,based on the analysis results,suggestions for optimizing the development of inbound tourism in Hainan are proposed.After research,the paper draws the following conclusions:(1)From the time series,the development of Hainan's inbound tourism and regional economic growth are non-stationary,but their development trend has certain synergy.(2)Hainan's tourismforeign exchange income and various economic indicators show a long-term equilibrium relationship to a certain extent.According to the results of the cointegration test,Hainan's tourism foreign exchange income increased by 1%,regional GDP,tertiary industry value,total import and export trade,and fixed investment value increased by 1.6024%,1.1836%,0.9602%,and 1.3269%,respectively.(3)From the Granger causality test,at the level of significance of 0.1,the tourism foreign exchange income and the gross regional product,the total volume of import and export trade are Granger causality,while the fixed asset investment value,the third There is only one-way causality between output value and tourism foreign exchange income.(4)From the perspective of impulse response function,tourism foreign exchange income can bring positive positive effects to regional GDP,tertiary output value,fixed asset investment value and total import and export trade.At the same time,various economic variables can also bring a positive positive effect to tourism foreign exchange earnings.(5)From the perspective of variance contribution rate,the contribution rate of total import and export trade to tourism foreign exchange income is the largest compared with other variables,except for the contribution rate of tourism foreign exchange income,which is 29.4%;The regional GDP(21%)and the fixed asset investment value(17.36%);the lowest contribution rate is the third output value,only 10.2%,indicating that the third output value is mainly affected by its own impact.