Analysis On The Fluctuation Factors Of Frozen Agricultural Products Trade Between China And Japan

As a big agricultural country,China has its own advantages in frozen agricultural products trade.Since China's entry into WTO,China's total export of frozen agricultural products has occupied the first place in the world.In the past 16 years,China and Japan have a close trade relationship in frozen agricultural products.China has become Japan's largest importer of frozen agricultural products,accounting for more than half of Japan's frozen agricultural products.But the frozen agricultural products trade volume between China and Japan has fluctuated greatly in recent years.In order to maintain the steady development of China's frozen agricultural export trade,it is of great significance to analyze the influencing factors of Sino-Japanese frozen agricultural trade fluctuation.Firstly,this paper combs the research literature of domestic and foreign scholars from different factors affecting international trade,different methods of studying international trade and related theories.According to Porter's "Diamond Model" in the theory of international competition,six trade determinants,namely "four basic factors"and "two auxiliary factors",are mentioned to study the influence mechanism of six related factors on frozen agricultural trade between China and Japan.Based on the full analysis of the trade scale,trade structure and trade competitiveness of frozen agricultural products between China and Japan,the second-order constant market share model is selected to analyze the structural effects,competitiveness effects,cross-effects in the three periods of 2001-2008,2009-2012 and 2013-2016,as well as the growth effects,product structure effects,product competitiveness effects and synthesis after the second-order decomposition.The effect of competitive power is analyzed.To study the contribution of different effects in different periods to the growth of frozen agricultural exports between China and Japan.In order to compare and analyze the contribution of the constant market share model,appropriate indicators are selected from six aspects:production factors of "four basic"factors,domestic demand,related industries,national competition and national policies and random events of "two auxiliary" factors.The partial least squares model can deal with the characteristics of multiple interpreted variables at the same time.Taking the total frozen agricultural products imported from China and frozen agricultural products imported from Japan as the interpreted variables,the regression coefficients of each interpreted variable to the interpreted variables are obtained.The partial least squares regression model is constructed to analyze the impact of various indicators on the export trade of frozen agricultural products between China and Japan,and the specific influencing factors of frozen agricultural products trade between China and Japan are obtained,so as to make up for the limitation that the constant market share model can only study the contribution of each effectThe study finds that growth effect and product competitiveness effect are the main effects to promote China's export of frozen agricultural products to Japanese market,while comprehensive competitiveness effect and product structure effect play a hindrance role.The main influencing factors are China's agricultural production scale,agricultural product quality,international ocean transportation capacity,Japan's foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate of Chinese and Japanese currencies.Finally,combined with the conclusion and reality,the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the export development of frozen agricultural products in China.