Recycling Of Retired Aircraft From The Perspective Of Circular Economy Potential Assessment And Benefit Analysis

The recycling and reuse of decommissioned aircraft is the most closely integrated link with circular economy in the aviation industry.It mainly includes two parts: passenger cargo conversion and aircraft dismantling.It is a high-tech industry with the characteristics of capital-intensive and technology-intensive.China’s aircraft fleet is gradually expanding,and the number of decommissioned aircraft is increasing year by year.This provides a broad prospect for the development of China’s decommissioned aircraft recycling industry,and is also an important link for China’s civil aviation to break the international monopoly.From the perspective of industrial development,this paper studies the overall potential of the recycling and reuse industry of decommissioned aircraft.The specific research scope is the potential output value of the recycling and reuse industry of decommissioned aircraft.Firstly,the theories of circular economy,aviation industry chain and sustainable development to systematically used to study the development of retired aircraft recycling,and explore the theoretical content of various related research fields.Research on the method of calculating output value and its application to determine the recycling industry of decommissioned aircraft.The “Factory Act”(FA)is applied to the calculation of potential output value.In order to accurately measure the potential output value of the retired aircraft recycling industry in China,the FA-SD model is constructed,and the result of the modified freighter quantity predicted by the SD model is added as a variable to the FA production value calculation to improve its accuracy.FA-SD model production value measurement is mainly divided into two steps.One is to construct a SD-based modified freighter quantity prediction model.According to the research demand,the historical analysis method is used to predict the aircraft decommissioning data that is difficult to directly measure in the SD model,and according to the aircraft decommissioning data.And the predicted modified freighter data is calculated by mathematical statistical methods to calculate the potential aircraft dismantling times;the second is to add the SD measurement results as variables to the FA output value measurement model to predict the potential output value of China’s retired aircraft recycling industry in the next decade.The forecast results show that the industry’s total output value will reach 61.57 billion yuan in 2018-2027,and the market have great development potential.Based on the results of the evaluation,the benefits of recycling and reuse of decommissioned aircraft are analyzed from three aspects: economic benefits,environmental benefits and social benefits.Based on the above analysis,some suggestions are put forward for the development of China’s decommissioned aircraft recycling and reuse industry,and theoretical support is provided for the construction of China’s decommissioned aircraft recycling and reuse industry development model.