A Study On Sino-japanese And Sino-korean Trade Checks And Balances Strategy

As the three important economies in East Asia,China,Japan and Korea have always been a hot topic in academic circles.Since the establishment of diplomatic ties between China,Japan and China,the economic and trade exchanges between China and Japan and South Korea have become increasingly close,and trade between them has achieved considerable development.However,some problems have also been exposed.In recent years,due to various factors,the bilateral relations of the three countries have gradually presented different situations.This paper mainly uses the Granger non-causality test model to explore the interrelationship between China and Japan and China and South Korea's bilateral trade from the perspective of“trade balance”.The research results will not only strengthen our understanding of the trade relationship between China,Japan and Korea.And it will play a guiding role in the development direction of China,Japan and Korea in the future economic and trade direction.Through the use of monthly trade data of 1991.01-2018.07,using the four variables of the ratio of South Korea and Japan in China's exports and imports,whether there is a trade balance between China and Japan and China and South Korea,and whether trade balances can be realized in the short-term and long-term.Granger non-causal relationship empirical test analysis.The study found that in the short term,Japan's share of China's imports,Mcj,has a significant negative effect on South Korea's share of China's imports,M_ck,and has a significant positive effect on South Korea's share of exports,X_ck,indicating that it is likely to be short-term.There is a“trade balance strategy”,but neither South Korea's trade share of M_ck nor X_ck has a significant negative effect on Japan's relative share of China's imports and exports.This means that even if the“trade balance strategy”exists in the short-term,its strategic intentions cannot be effectively realized;in the long run,Japan's share of China's exports Xcj has a significant positive effect on South Korea's share of exports Xck,meaning China has the long-term intention of Japan's"trade balance strategy"to adjust the structure of exporting countries;and South Korea's share of China's exports X_ck and South Korea's share of China's imports.M_ck's share of Japan's imports to China,M_cj and Japan's share of China's exports.X_cj has a significant negative effect,which means that China's long-term intention of adjusting the export country structure to Japan's"trade balance strategy"can be realized in the long run.Through these phenomena,it can be concluded that in the short-term,because the policy orientation is incompatible with the interests of the company,its strategic intention cannot be realized;in the long run,because the external conditions have changed,its strategic intention can be realized.In response to the above conclusions,the author first conducted an evaluation.Later,in the last chapter of the article,from the two aspects of policy orientation and promotion of industrial upgrading,the author put forward targeted suggestions and countermeasures on how to properly handle the relationship between China and Japan.