Study On The Impact Of Productive Service Trade Import Complexity On The Manufactures' International Specialization Status

As a pillar industry of national economic development,manufacturing is an important cornerstone for industrial modernization.Its development level directly affects a country's economic growth quality and core competitiveness.For a long time,China has actively integrated into the GVC division system by virtue of its resources and labor advantages,and has become a major export country.However,with the disappearance of the domestic demographic dividend and the increase of resources and environment issue,the low-cost advantage of China's manufacturing is constantly weakened.Under such a background,relying on the input of advanced production factors contained in productive services to improve manufacturing's efficiency and added value,and to realize the manufacturing's upgrading and the promotion of manufactures' international specialization status has become a realistic choice.On the basis of reviewing the literature research of domestic and foreign scholars,this paper firstly explores the ways that import complexity of producer service affecting manufactures' international specialization status in the aspects of technology spillover,cost reduction,human capital accumulation and value chain upgrade.Secondly,from the perspective of the scale,structure,technical complexity,the development status of China's producer service import is analyzed.And the GVC status index is used to measure manufactures' international specialization status of 25 countries including China in 2004-2015.Then,this paper uses the dynamic panel model to test the impact of producer service import complexity on manufactures' international specialization status from the perspective of the overall and sub-industry.The results show that:(1)The increase in the overall import complexity of producer services can significantly promote the promotion of manufactures' international specialization status,and the effect on developing countries is greater than developed countries;(2)The import complexity of producer services has increased,and the promotion effect on the technology-intensive manufactures' international specialization status has been the strongest,followed by capital-intensive manufacturing,and once again is labor-intensive manufacturing;(3)The importcomplexity of high-tech-intensive producer service has the greatest promotion effect on the improvement of manufacturing international division of labor,followed by the medium-technology-intensive service,and the effect of import complexity of low-tech-intensive service is minimal and not significant.After that,the panel threshold model was further constructed to analyze the threshold effect of the import complexity of the producer service on manufactures' international specialization status.The results show that:(1)When the accumulation of human capital is lower than the threshold,the import complexity of producer services will have an inhibitory effect on the promotion of manufactures' international specialization status,and once it crosses the threshold,its inhibition will be transformed into promotion.(2)When the level of foreign direct investment exceeds a certain threshold,the import complexity of the producer service will have a negative impact on the manufactures' international specialization status;(3)At different stages of domestic production support level,the import complexity of the producer service has a significant positive effect on manufactures' international specialization status,but Its intensity of action exhibits weak to strong nonlinear characteristics;(4)With the increase of R&D investment,the import complexity of producer services has a weak-strong-weak“S”-shaped trend in promoting manufactures' international specialization status.Finally,this paper combines the theoretical analysis and the conclusions of empirical research to better promote the improvement of China's manufactures' international specialization status.The following four policy recommendations are proposed: Firstly,Reduce market access restrictions and promote liberalization of service trade;Secondly,Strengthen high-tech production service imports,optimize service import technology structure;Thirdly,Encourage technological innovation and increase the training of high-quality talents;Fourthly,Pay attention to the quality of foreign investment and enhance domestic production supporting capacity.