Research On Commodity Housing Market Based On Rational Expectation Theory And System Dynamics

Since the reform and opening to the outside world,the real estate industry of our country develops rapidly and grows into the pillar industry of our country rapidly.The commodity housing market is the most important part of the real estate market.Since the abolition of the welfare housing division system in 1998,the commodity housing market has entered a golden period of development.The development of the commercial housing market has led to the economic growth,but with the rapid rise of house prices,the emergence of investment speculation,the burden of consumers increased.Based on this,from the central government to the local government adopted various policies to regulate the real estate market,but little effect,real estate market problems still exist.Therefore,it is very important to find a way to promote the sustainable and stable development of the commodity housing market through the in-depth analysis of the commodity housing market.The research object of this paper is Chongqing commercial housing market.Firstly,this paper analyzes the commercial housing market system in Chongqing,selects the main influencing factors of the commodity housing market system in Chongqing,and constructs the simulation model of Chongqing commodity housing market based on the system dynamics.The interaction mechanism among the four subsystems of housing demand,supply,price and expectation in housing market is analyzed by using rational expectation theory.Based on the historical data of Chongqing commodity housing market from 2000 to 2017,this paper forecasts the trend of commodity housing market from 2018 to 2030.Finally,according to the simulation results of the model,policy suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the commercial housing market.