Study On Risk Coupling Of Cross-regional Mega Projects

With the advent of the 13 th Five-Year Plan period,the demand for cross-regional mega projects is increasing,and the importance of cross-regional mega projects for regional economic and social development is becoming increasingly prominent.Cross-regional mega projects are complex systems that span many provincial administrative regions and have far-reaching impact on regional economy and even the whole national economic and social development.Because of the cross-regional characteristics of the system itself,the complexity and high uncertainty of the internal and external environment,a series of risks are triggered,and the interaction between internal and external risks leads to the existence of coupling effect.In the process of construction and operation of cross-regional mega projects,many major accidents are often caused by the interaction of multi-factor risks.Based on this background,it is an urgent problem to explore the risk coupling of cross-regional mega projects in order to better manage and control risks.Firstly,this paper identifies the risks of cross-regional mega projects in an all-round way.Based on the systematic analysis of cross-regional mega projects,28 risk factors of cross-regional mega projects are identified from the two dimensions of vulnerability and threat,with literature research as the main method and case analysis as the supplement.Secondly,the qualitative analysis of the cross-regional mega project risk factors coupling relationship is carried out.Based on the classification and analysis of risk coupling process of cross-regional mega projects,the coupling causality of factors within and between vulnerability risk subsystem and threat risk subsystem is analyzed in detail,and the characteristics and rules of their interaction are revealed.Then,the coupling system dynamics model of vulnerability risk and threat risk of cross-regional mega projects is constructed and simulated with specific case.The coupling degree model is used to measure the degree of coupling between factors,which provides the necessary calculation data for the construction of system equation.Through the system simulation operation,the change trend of the overall risk level of the project under the coupling effect of risk in a certain period of time is dynamically predicted to show irreversible growth.Moreover,the growth rate of the total value of risk level is most affected by the social stability risk and natural ecological risk in the threatening risk subsystem.By adjusting the coupling coefficient of key risk factors and simulating and observing the change of the total risk level of the coupling system,the key risk coupling forms such as the coupling of ecological environment damage and social stability risk,the coupling of intergovernmental conflict of interest and ecological environment damage risk were found.Finally,a risk coupling and decoupling control strategy for cross-regional mega projects is proposed.The idea of decoupling is introduced.On the basis of the principle of risk coupling and decoupling for cross-regional mega projects,combined with the characteristics and rules of risk factors coupling and the simulation results of risk coupling system,the precautionary strategies for key risk factors before coupling,the control strategies for key coupling risks in coupling,and the strategies for risk response after coupling are put forward.This paper introduces systematic thinking,comprehensively recognizes the risk nature of cross-regional mega projects,and explores the risk coupling of cross-regional mega projects,this provides important guidance and reference for its risk management.