Analysis And Research On Price Fluctuation Of Chili Pepper In China

Chili pepper industry is the largest vegetable industry in China.Chili pepper was first introduced into China in Wanli period of Ming Dynasty,and then began to grow.So far,chili pepper has been planted and eaten in China for more than 400 years.In 2018,China's total output value of pepper exceeded 70 billion yuan,accounting for 17% of the world's vegetable output;the area of pepper planting exceeded 1300 hectares,accounting for 35% of the world's total pepper planting area;and the total output of pepper was 18 million tons,accounting for 45% of the world's total pepper production.Under the background of agricultural supply-side structural reform and building a well-off society in 2020,as a pillar industry of agriculture in China,the pepper industry will have greater development potential and usher in a broader market prospect.However,the relevant historical data show that the price of pepper is unstable,the fluctuation range of the market is large,and the phenomena of "spicy overturning" and "spicy you cheap" frequently occur.Frequent price fluctuation not only seriously damages the interests of the pepper industry but also the practitioners,and is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of the pepper industry.Therefore,the analysis of the price fluctuation characteristics of chili pepper in China,and the exploration of the influencing factors of price fluctuation and price fluctuation cycle play an important role in improving the price stability of chili pepper market and promoting the healthy development of chili pepper industry in China.Based on literature research and empirical analysis,this paper combs the situation of chilli planting area,total yield,unit yield and main chilli producing areas in China by inquiring chilli price data published on the website of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China,agricultural product information network and official price cloud websites,and systematically analyses the situation of large-scale chilli trading market and price fluctuation characteristics in China.Using Eviews 8.0 econometric analysis software,using X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter analysis method,this paper analyzed the causes of price fluctuation of chili pepper in China and the law of price change of chili pepper,summarized the factors affecting the price of chili pepper,and predicted the price of chili pepper in the next two years by smoothing index method and ARMA model.It is found that under the influence of cost input,natural disasters and natural growth cycle of chili pepper,the price fluctuation of chili pepper shows obvious seasonal characteristics in the process of planting,harvesting and selling.In addition,the imbalance of market supply and demand is also an important factor leading to the price fluctuation of chili pepper in China.The research shows that with the continuous development of social economy,the pepper industry in China still faces the problems of low scientific and technological content,low degree of information in the pepper market,and the processing level of the pepper industry in the primary stage of the industry.In view of the above problems,this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: improving the information service mechanism of the pepper market,strengthening the market management of government departments and formulating relevant policies to support the development of the pepper industry,extending the pepper industry chain to promote the integration of the three industries,forming a mechanism for naming the origin of pepper brands,and actively participating in the International Pepper Market competition,with a view to promoting the development of the pepper industry.China's pepper industry to achieve healthy and sustainable development to provide theoretical reference.