Study On The Cost-Benefit Of Wheat In Hebei Province

China's wheat production and consumption has been ranked first in the world,and has remained at about 100 million tons for many years.As one of the main wheat producing provinces in China,Hebei Province ranks third in the world in terms of planting area,yield and yield per unit area.There are many food crops in Hebei Province,among which wheat is a very important one.The planting area is about 2.4 million hectares per year,accounting for about 10% of the total wheat planting area in China.Whether the wheat industry develops well or not is directly related to the development of rural economy and farmers' income,and also plays a very important role in stabilizing the price of the national grain market.At present,we are facing new strategic opportunities and need to make a new analysis of the wheat production situation in Hebei Province.Based on the literature review at home and abroad,this paper finds that the wheat industry in Hebei Province still has the problems of high production cost,unbalanced input of factors and gradual decline of income.Therefore,it is necessary to study the cost-benefit situation of wheat in Hebei Province.Based on the statistical data in Hebei Rural Statistical Yearbook,China Rural Statistical Yearbook and National Collection of Agricultural Product Cost-Benefit Data,this paper studies the cost-benefit of wheat in Hebei Province from four aspects,based on the cost accounting theory of agricultural products and the cost-benefit theory of agricultural products.Firstly,the present situation of wheat production in Hebei Province is analyzed in detail,and compared with the national average level.According to the statistical data from 2006 to 2017,the total cost per unit area,labor cost,land cost and material and service cost are selected to analyze the cost of wheat planting in Hebei Province,and the net profit per unit area,output value per unit area and service cost are selected.The three indexes of cost-profit margin are used to analyze the income.Secondly,the factors affecting the net profit of wheat in Hebei Province are empirically studied by using the multiple linear regression model,and the changes of the contribution rate of each factor to the net profit are estimated by the contribution rate calculation formula in stages.Thirdly,the influencing factors of wheat net profit in Hebei Province are predicted by ARIMA model,and the change of wheat net profit in 2018-2022 is obtained.Finally,on the basis of the analysis and summary of the empirical results,the following conclusions are drawn: there is a positive correlation between the selling price of each 50 kg main product and the net profit per unit yield,while there is a negative correlation between the labor cost,land cost,fertilizer cost and net profit.The sensitivity of each influencing factor to net profit ranks as follows: the average selling price of every 50 kg main product > the land cost per mu > the unit.The results show that the average selling price of every 50 kg of main products contributes the most to net profit in 2006-2017.In dynamic terms,the average selling price of every 50 kg of main products and the contribution rate of fertilizer fee to net profit in general show a downward trend,while the contribution rate of the other three factors to net profit shows a downward trend.The ARIMA forecast model concludes that the main factors affecting the net profit of wheat in Hebei Province are rising in 2018-2022,and the growth rate of land cost per mu is the fastest.Therefore,how to control the excessive growth of land cost is the focus of attention in the next five years.The innovation of this paper is not only to make an empirical study on the influencing factors of wheat planting income in Hebei Province,but also to use the formula of contribution rate to calculate the contribution rate of each influencing factor to the net profit of each period.Finally,the main influencing factors of net profit are predicted by ARIMA model,so as to further know the influencing factors of wheat planting income in the next five years.The trend of change can then be targeted to put forward policy recommendations to reduce the cost of wheat and increase revenue.