| With the rapid development of modern economy,the income level of urban and rural residents is getting higher and higher.Beef,a kind of high-quality meat,is more and more popular and consumed by residents.Due to the import of high-quality beef cattle abroad and the frequent prohibition of beef smuggling,the domestic beef supply in China is facing many shocks from the external market.Hebei Province is located in the intersection of the main beef producing areas in the Central Plains and the Northeast under the development plan of the main beef producing areas in China.Whether there is sufficient beef supply plays a vital role in the beef market in this region.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the changes of beef market price in Hebei Province.The market risk caused by the price has also been explored,and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the development of beef market in Hebei Province have been put forward through the results of the study.In terms of article structure,the current situation of beef market supply and demand in Hebei Province is summarized in this paper,and on this basis,a comparative study with the price is carried out.After analyzing the relationship between market supply and demand and price,beef price in Hebei Province has been further empirically studied in this paper.In addition,the national beef market price has also been selected as a reference.After knowing the price fluctuation,the market risk caused by this situation is defined in this paper.Through the study of the inevitable relationship between price and risk,the corresponding suggestions are put forward in the end.Descriptive statistical analysis is mainly used in the current situation of beef market in this paper.In the research of price and risk,the specific situation of beef price fluctuation and the risk of beef market are mainly described by choosing the multiple GARCH model as the research method.The main content of the article is divided into two parts.The first part is a brief and descriptive analysis based on data comparison.The beef related data in Hebei Province have been sorted out,which involves beef cattle breeding,meat consumption,price index and other data.In the direction of supply and demand,this paper describes the current situation of beef market in Hebei Province,and then makes a comparative analysis with beef price in Hebei Province.The second part is based on monthly data of boneless beef prices in Hebei Province and the whole country.Relevant test analysis was carried out by using multi-element GARCH model,and the trend of beef price change in Hebei Province was explored.And the transmission of beef prices in Hebei Province and the whole country is analyzed by price return rate.Finally,the market risks caused by price fluctuations are summarized and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.The results show that the main reasons for the price fluctuation of beef market in Hebei Province are the internal changes of the market and the impact of the national beef market according to the data analysis.In Hebei beef market,there is not only a volatile cluster effect,but also a strong transmission effect with the national beef market.The market risk studied in this paper mainly reflects that when the beef price in Hebei beef market changes,the trend of more drastic changes than the price will also be presented.Moreover,due to the transmission of the national beef market,a sustained instability will appear in the beef market of Hebei Province.And this instability caused by price fluctuation will lead to the emergence of beef market risk.The innovation of this research perspective is reflected in the study of price fluctuation and risk through price fluctuation within the market and transmission effect between markets.The innovation of research methods is embodied in the data analysis method of multielement GARCH model and the application of research ideas in the financial field to agricultural products research. |
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