Study On The Fluctuation Of Mutton Price In Hebei Province

With the development of economy and the improvement of people's consumption level,the diet structure gradually changes.Mutton is popular among consumers for its high protein and low fat nutritional properties.Under the influence of supply and demand,there is a continuous upward trend displayed on the price of mutton.Since 2000,mutton prices in Hebei Province have experienced three rapid rising stages,but a large drop in 2014-2015.As a valid indicator,the price of mutton can directly reflect the effectiveness of mutton supply,the stability of consumption levels of urban and rural residents,and the efficiency of mutton market operation in Hebei Province.Therefore,the study of the fluctuation of mutton price in Hebei Province is a crucial material to grasp the characteristics of the price changes and forecast the price trend.Meanwhile,it also provides a reference for the government to formulate macro-control policies and market self-regulation functions.This study,in brief,does have practical significance for stabilizing mutton price fluctuations and mutton market in Hebei Province.Based on equilibrium price theory,cobweb theory and price fluctuation cycle theory,this paper takes the mutton price of Hebei Province from January 2000 to September 2018 as the research object,and takes price fluctuation as the analysis entry point.Combined with descriptive statistical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper explores the fluctuation of mutton price and predicts the future trend.The corresponding suggestions based on the research conclusions are placed at the end of the article.This paper mainly draws the following conclusions:(1)The mutton price in Hebei Province shows a rising trend of periodic fluctuation.(2)Using the Census X12 seasonal adjustment method for empirical analysis,the article finds that the short-term fluctuation of mutton price has obvious seasonality and irregularity.(3)The price fluctuation of mutton has cyclicity.The H-P filtering method divides the price of mutton in the sample period into eight fluctuation periods.The longest period is 39 months,the shortest period is 15 months,and the average period is 25.25 months.(4)mutton price has a long-term trend of slow fluctuation and slight rise.(5)ARIMA model is established to forecast the price trend of mutton from October 2018 to June 2019.The results show that there is a slight rise in volatility in Mutton price during the nine months.(6)The result of impulse response further proves that mutton price in Hebei Province is more sensitive to the external environmental impact in the short term,and the fluctuations are more frequent,which requires the government's macroeconomic regulation and control policy adjustment;the long-term trend is relatively stable,due to the market's self-regulating function,the macroeconomic response of mutton price is relatively slow.(7)In order to stabilize the price of mutton in Hebei province,some suggestions are proposed such as formulating subsidy policy,improving the supervision of mutton market,establishing an emergency reserve meat system,promoting moderate large-scale breeding to ensure mutton supply,improve the industrial chain of mutton sheep,and improving the production technology of mutton sheep breeding.The innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly,there are relatively few studies on the fluctuation of mutton price in Hebei Province.The paper analyzes the fluctuation characteristics and causes of mutton price in Hebei Province by using Census X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter analysis method.The ARIMA model is used to predict the future short-term mutton price trend,so the research results are enriched in the scope and content of the research.Secondly,the LM breakpoint test method is introduced to analyze the structural changes of mutton price fluctuations.The impulse response is used in the short-term price forecasting process,and the impact of external information impact on mutton price changes and prediction results is analyzed.There is some innovation in the choice.