Research On The Investment Decisions Of Photovoltaic Power Projects

Photovoltaic power generation is one of the important industries for the transformation of China's energy structure to green and low pollution.The installed capacity has continued to grow in recent years.Photovoltaic power generation projects have the characteristics of large capital needs,unstable power generation and poor liquidity.Project investment is faced with the uncertain factors like technology,policy,economy,market and natural environment.Therefore,it is necessary to make correct and scientific investment decisions before investing in PV power generation projects.This paper studies the investment decisions of photovoltaic power generation projects,discusses the effect of uncertainty on photovoltaic power generation project's investment,and evaluates project investment risks.This study promotes the scientific rationalization of investment decisions for photovoltaic power generation projects and has important guiding practical significance.First,we introduce the background and significance of investment decisions in a photovoltaic power generation project.Then,we summarize the domestic and international research on decision to invest in photovoltaic power generation,and research on the application of system dynamics.We then analyze the characteristics of investment decision-making,including existing problems and uncertainties like technical,policy,economic,market dynamics,and the natural environment in PV power generation projects.On this basis,we build a dynamic model for an investment decision-making system for PV power generation project and divided it into four subsystems,including fundraising and investment subsystems,revenue and cost subsystems,profit subsystems and cash flow subsystem.Use functions represented the relationships among variables in each subsystem.Empirical analysis of established models shows that the photovoltaic power generation investment model is reasonable and scientific.Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations are conducted on the main uncertainty factors affecting the investment decision of PV power generation projects.Afterwards,advice is given on investment decisions by photovoltaic power generation companies.