Research On The Characteristics And Prediction Of Urban Residents' Consumption Structure In Taiyuan City

In the new historical period,consumption gradually replaces the leading role of investment in economic transformation and becomes a key factor affecting national economy.It plays a precious role in maintaining stable economic development and promoting economic transformation.Scholars at home and abroad have made some achievements in the research on the consumption structure of residents.However,most of the research ideas focus on qualitative analysis,but lack of quantitative analysis,especially in the comprehensive analysis of all kinds of factors affecting the direction and degree of change in the consumer structure.In addition,for specific regions,there is a lack of research on the impact of various factors on the local consumption structure and the forecast of consumption in the next few years.Based on the above,this paper select urban residents of taiyuan as the research object.Using the method of literature,theory and empirical combination of methods and comparative analysis method,this paper makes an objective analysis and research on the characteristics and current situation of the consumption structure of urban residents in taiyuan city.And this paper predicts the consumption structure change trend of taiyuan urban residents in the next five years.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions.The major research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper collates relevant data of consumption expenditure of taiyuan urban residents from 2000 to 2017 through the consult statistical yearbook.We make a quantitative analysis of the structural characteristics and changes of taiyuan's urban residents' consumption expenditure.This paper finds that the consumption structure of urban residents in taiyuan city has been upgraded and continuously optimized through data parsing.Engel coefficient variation analysis shows that the engel coefficient of taiyuan's urban residents is concentrated at 40-20%from 2000 to 2017 and it's getting closer and closer to 20%.It means that the people of the town of taiyuan are stepping into the abundance phase.(2)This paper uses the ELES model to study the consumption expenditure level of urban residents in taiyuan.This paper makes empirical research on the consumption structure from the aspects of basic consumption expenditure,marginal consumption tendency and the demand elasticity of consumption by the research methods of analysis and comparison.It is found that food,transportation and communication play an important role in the consumption of urban residents in taiyuan.The income elasticity coefficient of demand for entertainment and clothing is low,and they are not sensitive to the change of income.In contrast,household equipment,transportation and communication,housing consumption,medical care consumption and household income are more sensitive.The price changes of commodities themselves have a greater impact on consumers' purchase of commodities than other consumer expenditure items.Among them,the biggest impact by its price changes is the demand for housing.(3)This paper uses the grey prediction model to predict the consumption structure development trend of taiyuan urban residents in the next five years from 2018 to 2022 combined with grey system theory.We analyze the consumption expenditure of urban residents in taiyuan in the next five years.(4)Through the analysis,it is found that the problems in the consumption structure of urban residents in taiyuan include the widening gap between the income and consumption of urban residents in taiyuan,the large proportion of residential consumption,the need to improve high-level spiritual and cultural consumption,the unstable consumption of medical care and health care,and the obvious rising trend of transportation and communication consumption.Based on the above problems,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions.It is necessary to expand the scope of consumption and increase the number of hot spots.The government will strengthen supervision of the real estate industry to prevent excessive housing price growth,vigorously develop cultural consumption and improve the social security system that benefits all the people.It is a right moment to set up a green concept of consumption and to resist the conspicuous consumption.