Research On Indicator System Construction And Evaluation Method Of Enterprise Innovation Risk

China is a highly complex and dynamic transition economy,with a rapidly changing market and frequent new product launches.In order to survive and maintain competitive advantage in the changing environment,enterprises must actively innovate and manage the risks involved in innovation.Innovation creates opportunities for survival,growth and profitability,and innovation is an important way to achieve corporate excellence and long-term growth and prosperity.Enterprises that fail to fully invest resources and energy in innovation will be unable to upgrade their production structure and face the risk of being squeezed out of the market by more active competitors.With the weakening of competitiveness,the enterprise will probably die out.However,innovation is a"double-edged sword",with characteristics of high potentials,high investments,high returns and high risks.In particular,high risks of technology,market and management hinder or even kill many innovative activities.Most of the innovation projects are abandoned by enterprises at different stages of the innovation process.Therefore,the management of enterprise innovation risk has important practical and economic significance.Through consulting a large number of domestic and foreign literatures,this paper makes clear that innovation is the exploration of products,services,ideas or procedures with novelty,and innovation needs to be implemented in a planned way.In a sense,innovation is completed through a slow process,accompanied by a greater risk of enterprise losing value.Through extensive reading of papers and academic reports related to innovation risks,different literatures summarize innovation risks from different perspectives.In addition,with the constant change of market environment,innovation risk indicators are constantly updated and the focus of risks are constantly changing.According to system theory and management point of view,this article summarizes identified widely agreed to be the innovation risk indicators,and combined with Epson,Honor and other cases to complete some innovation risk indicators.Finally,this paper classifies innovation risk from the four aspects of organizational resources,organizational structure,operation mechanism and external environment,including 20 subordinate indicators,and elaborates on each indicator in combination with literature and cases.A questionnaire is constructed based on the innovation risk indicator system.This paper uses Q-sort method,through the Kappa coefficient and Hit Radio to test the consistency of the questionnaire items.We adjusted and modified the fuzzy items and deleted the cross-classified items.Finally,we obtained the questionnaire items that passed the reliability and structural validity test and verified the consistency and reliability of the innovation risk indicator system established in this paper,which laid a foundation for the following research on enterprise innovation risk evaluation.The innovation risk indicators established in this paper are all qualitative information,and there is no observation data.At this time,the expert experience knowledge will play a supporting role in the evaluation of innovation risk.The indicators' weight based on the intuitionistic judgment matrix can effectively avoid the lack of experience knowledge or even the absence of the situation,and get more objective index weight.In addition,the evaluation process is not easy to quantify and have a lot of vagueness and incompleteness.Due to the lack of certain professional knowledge in the observer cognitive limitations,such as qualitative innovation risk indicators using language to describe has a great deal of uncertainty.Therefore,the use of evidential reasoning method to evaluate the innovation risk of an enterprise can effectively combine these uncertain and incomplete information and obtain more reasonable evaluation results.The combination of the two methods can effectively combine the uncertainty and fuzziness of the evaluation process,take into account the incomplete information of the decision-making process more comprehensively and broaden its application field.Finally,this paper investigated and studied the innovation risk of general motors(China).The obtained questionnaire data were analyzed on the innovation risk of the enterprise through evidential reasoning method,so as to verify the feasibility of evidential reasoning method in evaluating the innovation risk of the company.