The Impact Of Trade Policy Uncertainty On China's Manufacturing Exports

In recent years,as conflicts of interest between developing and developed countries have become more intense,the trading environment has become increasingly unstable.In this day and age,each country,while pursuing its economic sustainable development goals,constantly adjusts its trade policies in order to create a more robust trading environment for its own development.The continuation of this situation means a resurgence of trade protectionism,which also makes China's trade policy uncertainty(TPU)greatly increased,but also make TPU increasingly an important factor affecting China's exports.The actual application of tariff level can not exceed the level of binding tariffs,which is the WTO between members of the tariff provisions.It is precisely because of this provision that about one-third of WTO members have raised tariffs and not compensated their trading partners accordingly,and from another point of view,the "blank" left behind is also a disguised form of protectionism.According to relevant statistics,Indonesia's tariff level increased from an average of 7 per cent to 36 per cent before and after the financial crisis,compared with 12 to 36 per cent in Brazil and,overall,from an average of 8 per cent to 28 per cent in developing countries.Thus,trade agreements are not fully contractual,there are many "gaps" in trade agreements,which are often sources of uncertainty,which have a certain impact on exports.In addition,manufacturing industry is a pillar industry of our country,is an important embodiment of china's creativity,competitiveness and comprehensive national strength,and its huge export is also one of the important driving forces of China's economic growth.In this context,the impact of TPU on its exports in China's manufacturing industry has become an urgent issue.There are already a considerable number of literatures on TPU research at home and abroad,and the research on TPU in the academic circles has formed a more systematic theoretical system,and it shows that TPU has a very important influence on many aspects.Among them,the existing literature on the impact of TPU on export trade is mainly to study the impact of TPU on a country or region's total export volume,but it is rare to study the impact of TPU on China's exports from the micro-product level.There are few articles on the impact of TPU on the value of China's manufacturing export products from the micro-product level,and based on this,this paper attempts to study the impact of TPU on the value of China's manufacturing export products from the micro-product level under the background of China's accession to the WTO and the signing of bilateral or multilateral trade agreements with many countries.In order to look forward to further enrich ingress TPU related research.This paper takes the research method of combining theory with practice,qualitative research and quantitative analysis.First,the sources of TPU-related research and their impact on exports are clarified through a literature review.Secondly,the theoretical basis and theoretical mechanism of TPU's influence on export are expounded.Third,combined with the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the method,the use of micro-product level panel data to test the impact of TPU on China's manufacturing export trade,at the same time,this paper also studied the impact of TPU on the intensive marginal and expansion margin,testing the institutional environment of trading partners on TPU impact on manufacturing exports adjustment role,This paper analyzes the current situation of TPU faced by China's manufacturing sub-sector industry in recent years,and examines the differences in the influence of TPU on different export product types.At the end of this paper,according to the actual situation of our country,from the government and enterprises,how to reduce and deal with TPU to provide some policy reference,and strive to improve China's welfare and promote the smooth development of China's manufacturing export trade.Through the research of this paper,in the theoretical aspect,this paper expounds the theoretical mechanism of TPU's influence on export trade.According to the analysis of the theoretical mechanism,it can be inferred that TPU has a negative effect on the value of manufacturing export products.On the empirical side,this paper uses the micro-product level data of Chinese manufacturing exports to 116 WTO members from 2009 to 2016 to test the influence of TPU on trade flows as the main explanatory variable,and the empirical results also confirm the theoretical hypothesis.The empirical results show that TPU has a significant negative effect on the value of China's manufacturing export products,TPU is a factor that will have a real impact on the export of manufacturing enterprises outside of tariffs,and further find that the worse the institutional environment of trading partners,the greater the negative impact of TPU on manufacturing exports,the better the institutional environment of trading partners.The negative influence of TPU on manufacturing exports is smaller;TPU mainly affects the export of China's manufacturing industry by intensive margin,compared with high-tech products,TPU exports of non-high-tech products have a greater negative impact,compared with intermediate products,TPU exports of non-intermediate products,the negative impact is greater.Combined with theoretical analysis and empirical results,this paper attempts to put forward suggestions to reduce or deal with the negative impact of TPU:further improve the level of liberalization,actively participate in the signing of trade agreements,develop export insurance business and so on.The conclusion of this paper can reveal the positive effect of signing trade agreement signed on China's manufacturing export from a new perspective.At the same time,this paper provides evidence of the importance of trade commitments.In particular,this paper supports the view that TPU is a trade barrier.Thus,even in practice,the size of the tariff ceiling is significant even if the tariff rate remains unchanged,as it reduces the range of possible future tariff changes by reducing the size of the boundary value that may change in tariffs,thereby reducing the TPU and thus encouraging trade growth.