The Impact Of Trade Policy Uncertainty On The Exports Performance Rate Of SMEs

In recent years,with the outbreak of global events such as the European debt crisis,Brexit,the Sino-US trade war,COVID-19 Outbreak,and the Russian-Ukrainian war,the impact of global uncertainty has become more frequent,and the international environment has become increasingly complex,instability and uncertainty have increased significantly,and the global economy has entered a new period of adjustment.At the same time,given the strong rise of China’s manufacturing industry in the global value chain,Sino-US trade friction has become inevitable,and has shown a clear trend of normalization,complexity and long-term,which further exacerbates the partial trade insecurity China faces.certainty.According to the National Bureau of Statistics,the number of small and medium-sized enterprises in my country has now exceeded 44 million,accounting for more than 99%of the total number of enterprises in my country,showing an absolute advantage in number.They have important contributions to employment,taxation and technological innovation,and social stability,economic development and the realization of common prosperity is of great significance.Small and medium-sized enterprises have made outstanding contributions to my country’s economic development,but small and medium-sized enterprises are often on the weaker side in market competition,and their ability to deal with external risks and external shocks is weak.Therefore,in the context of rising trade policy uncertainty,studying the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the export performance of SMEs has become an important issue facing my country’s economic development.Based on the heterogeneous firm model,this paper introduces trade policy uncertainty as an influencing factor to study the impact mechanism of trade policy uncertainty on firm export performance.Through the derivation of the model,the theoretical result is obtained that the reduction of trade policy uncertainty has a promoting effect on the export performance of enterprises.In terms of empirical research,this paper uses the 2011-2016 Guotai’an listed SMEs database and China’s trade policy uncertainty index data to empirically study the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the export performance of SMEs by using panel data fixed-effect regression.The results show that:First,The increase of trade policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on the export performance of my country’s SMEs.When the uncertainty of trade policy decreases,the export risks faced by enterprises and the export cost of enterprises also decrease.Small and medium-sized enterprises will take this opportunity to increase exports in the hope of occupying more market shares.Second,As far as the impact mechanism is concerned,trade policy uncertainty can affect the export performance of SMEs through channels such as trade costs and government subsidies.Third,the selection effect of trade policy uncertainty on SMEs’ export performance is related to firm heterogeneity.Trade policy uncertainty has different impacts on SMEs with different ownership,different technological content and different regions.The above conclusions provide some countermeasures and suggestions for the government and SMEs to improve their coping capabilities under the background of the current trade policy uncertainty.