Research On The Influence Of Trade Policy Uncertainty On China’s Electromechanical Products Export To ASEAN

With the continuous development of economic globalization,the economic exchanges between countries become increasingly frequent and close,foreign trade has played a significant role in the development of China and even the world.In order to cooperate with the development of economic globalization,various countries have issued corresponding foreign trade policies.Trade protectionism and unilateralism,especially Brexit and the Trump administration’s "America First" strategy,are on the rise,adding to uncertainties and destabilizing factors in the international market.The uncertainty of trade policy has been paid more and more attention by scholars.The China-Asean Free Trade Area was formally established on January 1,2010.This is the first free trade agreement our country has signed.It is of great significance to both China and ASEAN.Since the signing of the agreement,the two sides have been developing in economic and trade exchanges and expanding the scale of trade.Due to the long-term sustainable and healthy development of China-Asean FREE Trade Area,it has become an indispensable part of China’s free trade area strategy and has a great influence on china-asean bilateral relations and even southeast Asia.Mechanical and electrical products as a large proportion of the trade between China and ASEAN products,its huge export has greatly promoted the rapid growth of China’s economy,playing an irreplaceable role in bilateral economic and trade cooperation.At present,the international market competition is particularly fierce,China’s electromechanical products export is facing many challenges.The uncertainty of trade policy(TPU)is the key factor affecting the export of electromechanical products in China.In this context,it is of positive theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of trade policy uncertainty on The export of Chinese mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN and analyze and discuss how to create a more secure and stable trade environment for the export of Chinese mechanical and electrical products.Focusing on the question whether the uncertainty of trade policy will affect the export of electromechanical products to ASEAN,this paper combines theory with practice,qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.Firstly,relevant domestic and foreign literature on trade policy uncertainty is collected,and the existing literature is sorted out to determine the theme and research direction of the paper.Secondly,the theory related to trade policy uncertainty is analyzed concretely.By constructing an empirical model,the panel data of China’s electromechanical products export to ASEAN from 2002 to 2018 are used to test whether the uncertainty of trade policy will have an impact on China’s electromechanical products export to ASEAN.Finally,according to the actual economic and trade situation in China,some policies and suggestions are provided for enterprises and government to reduce and deal with the uncertainty of trade policy and enhance the competitiveness of China’s electromechanical products export.