Research On Spatial Temporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Of The Trade Pattern Of Tin Industry Chain Along The "Belt And Road" Countries

Tin metal is a strategic mineral resource that drives national economic development,and the "Belt and Road" initiative provides a major opportunity for trade in tin products in countries along the "Belt and Road"."The uneven distribution of tin resources in the countries along the Belt and Road will inevitably lead to the establishment of trade relations between countries for tin products.This thesis firstly explores the evolution of the trade pattern of the tin industry chain along the "Belt and Road" from a macro perspective,and then analyses the factors influencing the evolution of the trade pattern of the tin industry chain along the "Belt and Road" from a micro perspective.This thesis presents suggestions for the development of the tin industry chain trade in countries along the "Belt and Road".Based on the trade data of key products in the tin industry chain of countries along the"Belt and Road" from 2013 to 2021,this thesis uses the complex network theory approach to construct a trade network model of the "Belt and Road" tin industry chain,and uses Gephi software to create "The network density,clustering coefficient and average path length indicators were selected to analyse the overall network characteristics and evolution patterns,while the degree,weighted degree and centrality indicators were selected to explore the individual network characteristics and evolution patterns.Secondly,the "Belt and Road" tin industry chain trade network is divided into associations through the community detection algorithm,and the internal characteristics and evolution patterns of the associations are analysed.Again,QAP analysis is applied to explore the factors influencing the evolution of the characteristics of the "Belt and Road" tin industry chain trade pattern from 2013 to 2021,based on five dimensions: economic,geographical,cultural,technological and institutional.Finally,based on the results of the above analysis,targeted suggestions are made for the development of the tin industry chain trade in China and the "Belt and Road" countries.At the"Belt and Road" level,policy recommendations are made to optimise the structure of associations in the trade pattern of the tin industry chain in countries along the "Belt and Road",to expand trade partners for tin products and to enhance trade facilitation.At the Chinese level,recommendations are made to improve the level of science and technology,adopt differentiated trade strategies according to China’s position in the tin industry chain trade network along the Belt and Road,and leverage China’s influence in the tin industry chain trade network of countries along the Belt and Road.According to the results of the study,(1)the three representative products in the tin industry chain have a certain aggregation effect in the trade of countries along the "Belt and Road",and on the whole,industrial tin products are the most aggregated,unwrought unalloyed tin is the second most aggregated,and tin ore and its concentrates are the least aggregated.However,in terms of trade transfer efficiency,tin ore and its concentrates are the most efficient,while unwrought unalloyed tin and industrial tin products are relatively less so.(2)The trade in tin products along the Belt and Road is characterised by the association of countries along the chain,but some countries dominate the trade within the association.(3)China is at the heart of the tin chain trade in the countries along the "Belt and Road".In the upstream trade network,China is basically at the top of the import trade;in the midstream trade network,China is the main importer,but in 2021,China will become the main exporter;in the downstream trade network,China is the main exporter.(4)QAP regression analysis reveals that economic size and language and culture have little impact on the midstream and downstream trade networks of the tin industry chain,geographical distance has a dampening effect on trade in midstream products,bordering countries and the signing of regional trade agreements have a facilitating effect on trade in midstream and downstream products,and patent differences have a dampening effect on trade in midstream products and a Facilitating effects.