Research On The Effect Mechanism Of Economic Growth On Freight Demand

Transportation system plays an important role in economic growth,connecting all industries in the industry and all stages of economic operation.In recent years,with the slowdown of China's economic growth,the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure,and the proposal of the strategy of strengthening China's transportation industry,the transportation industry is facing more and more serious tests of economic growth and development.In the face of the problems of regional economic growth differentiation,unbalanced development of transportation system and regions,and incongruity between transportation demand and economic growth,it is a problem that must be solved in the future to coordinate the relationship between transportation and economic growth and improve the operation efficiency of transportation.Therefore,this paper takes the demand of goods transportation as the dependent variable and the level of economic growth as the independent variable,and studies the relationship between them from the perspective of theory and empirical.The research contents and main conclusions are as follows.(1)The relationship between freight transport and economic growth is studied.Firstly,the paper describes the current situation of freight transport and economic growth.In the study of the relationship between the two,it selects the decoupling index and intensity index,and calculates the freight decoupling index and freight intensity in 2001,2008 and 2017 of 30 provinces(cities,autonomous regions)in China.The results show that the regional differences of the decoupling index and freight intensity are obvious:the regional freight demand in the post industrialization period of economic growth begins to decline;the freight intensity in the East,West,North and South regions is quite different,and the decoupling index in most regions of China is positive,indicating that the freight demand increases with the economic growth.(2)This paper studies the causes of the nonlinear relationship between freight transport and economic growth from the perspective of economic agglomeration.This paper expounds the mechanism of the impact of economic agglomeration on freight transport,constructs the mechanism model of the relationship between economic agglomeration and freight transport intensity by analogy with the input-output model,selects the population density and economic density as the indicators of economic agglomeration,and selects the reasonable indicators in economic development as the control variables,using the annual data of the total amount of railway and road freight transport in China from 1997 to 2017 as the research samples.The results show that there is a significant non-linear relationship between economic agglomeration and freight intensity,and the secondary term system of economic agglomeration is significantly negative,that is,freight intensity will show an inverted U-shaped trend with the increase of economic agglomeration.(3)When studying the relationship between freight transport and economic growth stage,the variables are the per capita freight turnover and per capita GDP of each province,and the research methods are the second panel econometric model and threshold regression model.The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the per capita GDP and the per capita freight turnover.When the per capita GDP reaches about 41500 yuan,the freight demand decreases,while when the per capita GDP reaches 51917 yuan,the per capita freight turnover begins to increase in a negative directionTherefore,through the study of this paper,different.regions should make different transportation policies according to their own geomorphic characteristics and economic growth stage,and reasonably plan the industrial layout of each region to achieve win-win development.