The Research On Early Warning Of Financial Crisis Of Listed Private Real Estate Companies

The real estate industry,as the main force of national economic development,will fluctuate in its financial situation and will affect all stakeholders in the market economy.In recent years,various national macro-control policies have had a huge impact on the development of the real estate industry.In addition,the industry itself has the characteristics of large capital demand and long recovery period.In the past ten years,the asset-liability ratio has been above 70%every year Gradually approaching 80%,the hidden risks of the financial situation have gradually been exposed.As an indispensable force in the development of this industry,private real estate companies have certain inherent disadvantages and low risk tolerance.It is imperative that real estate private enterprises want to operate healthily and solve financial risks.Therefore,it is of great significance to build a targeted financial early warning mechanism for private real estate listed companies.The research object of this paper is private enterprises in listed real estate companies.The thesis starts with a review of the research status at home and abroad,and then explains the theoretical basis required for subsequent research.Secondly,from the perspective of risk analysis of private real estate listed companies,it analyzes the current early warning methods and deficiencies of the real estate market.Once again,the financial and non-financial indicators of 42 private real estate listed companies 3 years before the crisis(T-3 years)and 2 years before the crisis(T-2 years)were selected,and the data and indicators were selected respectively.The screening was completed Then use factor analysis and construct a regression model based on the principal component.Through inspection,the comprehensive accuracy rate of the T-2 year model reached 95.2%,while the accuracy of the T-3 year was only 79.5%.It can be seen that the financial early warning model constructed according to the T-2 year can accurately predict the financial crisis.Finally,we selected a private real estate listed company that was issued a delisting warning in 2018-Company Y to conduct further model tests and put forward suggestions for the entire private real estate industry to prevent crises.Through in-depth research on the financial early warning of listed private real estate companies,this paper draws the following conclusions:the occurrence of financial crises often has certain signs,and the warning effect of the early warning of the indicators is different from the year when the crisis occurs.The year of occurrence is approaching gradually,and the accuracy of the financial warning model constructed in this paper is higher.Private listed real estate companies,as the backbone of China’s real estate industry development,hope this article can make a meager contribution to its healthy development.