Change And Simulation Of Land Use In Longnan City Based On FLUS Model

Land is the basis of human survival.People carry out production and life on land to meet their own needs,promote social and economic development,at the same time,it will cause changes in land-use structure and regional ecological environment,causing certain harm to the sustainable development of land and regional ecological environment security.Therefore,to master the law of land-use change,the driving mechanism of land-use change and the direction of land-use change in the future has become a hot issue in the study of land-use change.Due to its unique geographical location and the development of the social economy in recent years,the phenomenon of land resources shortage in Longnan City is more prominent.The simulation of land-use change in the future can provide some reference for the city's land resources management department and promote the sustainable development of land resources.This study took Longnan City as the research area.Six land-use types were extracted by interpreting the remote sensing images in 2000,2010,and 2018,such as cultivated land,construction land,forest land,grassland,water area,and unused land.The characteristics of land-use change in the study area from 2010 to 2018 were analyzed from two aspects: the change rate of land use quantity and the transfer matrix of land type.Considering the selection principle of driving factors comprehensively,8driving factors were selected from three aspects of nature,accessibility and social economy,and the relationship between land-use change and driving factor was analyzed by using logistic regression method to determine the optimal scale of the simulation.Based on the land-use data in 2010,the spatial distribution pattern of land-use in 2018 in the study area was simulated and verified by the FLUS model.Then the spatial distribution pattern of land-use was simulated under the natural development scenario,cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in 2026.In addition,the dynamic change of land-use from 2018 to 2026 under three different scenarios was compared and analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The land-use structure of Longnan City changed slowly from 2000 to 2010,but from 2010 to 2018,the land use structure of Longnan City changed relatively fast The trend of land-use type change is that construction land,forest land,grassland andwater area increase,cultivated land and unused land decrease,among which construction land and cultivated land change the most.(2)Choosing appropriate grid-scale is very important to the accuracy of land-use change simulation in the whole city.When using the results of logistic regression analysis to test ROC curve,we found that the best value of ROC curve is100m×100m in the grid-scale,the ROC curve values of the six types of land types have the largest values,and the ROC values of the six types of land-use are all greater than 0.7.It shows that the driving factor can better explain the land-use change in Longnan City on this scale.(3)Based on the land-use data in 2010,this study used the FLUS model to simulate the land-use spatial distribution pattern of Longnan City in 2018.The kappa coefficient value of the simulation result is 0.79,which indicates that the model and related parameters set in the model can be used to predict the future land-use spatial distribution pattern of Longnan City.From 2018 to 2026,there are significant differences in land-use change of the whole city under three different scenarios.Under the natural development scenario,the development is still in accordance with the land-use change rate from 2010 to 2018.Among the land-use types,cultivated land and construction land have changed the most.Under the scenario of cultivated land protection,cultivated land will have been protected to a certain extent,and the original reduction rate has decreased.Compared with the scenario of natural development,the increase rate of forest land has also decreased.Under the ecological protection scenario,forest land and grassland have been protected,and the growth rate of forest land and grassland is increased.Meanwhile,the growth rate of construction land area is also controlled to some extent.Compared with the other two scenarios,the growth rate of construction land is decreased.(4)Through the analysis and simulation of land-use change in Longnan City,we can see that there are some problems in land-use,such as unreasonable structure and distribution pattern.In the future,the increase of construction land should be controlled,the protection of cultivated land and ecological environment should be strengthened.