Research On Comprehensive Evaluation And Development Prediction Of Rural Revitalization In Hunan Province

The strategy of rural revitalization is the focus of the central government's deployment of rural economic work since the 19 th Communist Party of China National Congress,and is one of the medium-and long-term strategies of national economic development.In recent years,Hunan Province is in the forefront of the national economic ranking.Hunan Province is also a province with a large rural population,and its economic development level largely depends on the development of rural economy.Therefore,it is imperative to scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of rural revitalization in Hunan Province.Based on the previous study of the literature on rural revitalization,this paper,first of all,establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system of rural revitalization in Hunan Province according to the situation of Hunan Province through the understanding of the comprehensive evaluation methods such as subjective weighting method,objective weighting method and combination weighting method.The index system includes five levels: industrial prosperity,ecological livability,rural civilization,effective governance,together with living affluence,as well as 20 specific secondary indicators.Then the data of various indicators in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2018 was collected.This paper respectively uses AHP and entropy method to study the indicator weight,and uses linear weighting method to get the final indicator weight.The indicator weight is reasonable through AHP and mean square error method to verify,so as to find out the rural revitalization of cities and prefectures in Hunan Province comprehensive score.Secondly,this paper uses GM(1,1)model to study the future development trend of 20 indicators of rural revitalization in Hunan Province through the in-depth understanding of the gray prediction theory,and compare the predicted value with the 2020 target value and 2022 target value.Finally,combining the results of comprehensive evaluation and gray prediction,the research conclusions can be drawn,and the corresponding policy suggestions are made.The empirical results show that the weight obtained by the combination weighting method is better than that of the subjective weighting method and the objective weighting method.The rural revitalization of Hunan Province has the difference in time and space,and the indicators of the rural revitalization index system of Hunan Province can be optimized in order.In view of the above,the scientific and feasible suggestions are put forward from five aspects: accelerating the formulation and implementation of the plan,accelerating the cultivation and development of the industry,increasing the investment in science and technology and education,coordinating the development of various regions,and strengthening the publicity and construction.The research results of this paper,which has a strong application value,have a reference for the decision-making of government departments at all levels in HunanProvince,can understand the present situation and future trend of rural revitalization in Hunan Province,adjust the policies adopted in real time,prevent the wrong orientation of rural revitalization,and ensure the sound development of rural revitalization in Hunan Province.In addition,this paper looks forward to the further research from the aspects of the construction of comprehensive evaluation index system,the selection of comprehensive evaluation methods,the optimization of gray prediction model and so on.