Research On Forecast Of Logistics Demand In Guangxi Under The ASEAN Background

Logistics demand forecast as the core part of logistics planning,layout and construction,in developing regional logistics development policies,determine the scale of logistics infrastructure and logistics industry trend analysis has played an important role.Guangxi as the bridgehead of China-ASEAN free trade area,the depth of bilateral trade has played a crucial role to the logistics demand,while the Guangxi is increasingly becoming a major transportation hub and logistics major thoroughfare in regional economy,logistics demand forecast has important practical significance.Development of the logistics industry subject to a variety economic,trade and industry factors.This paper based on the analysis trade between Guangxi and ASEAN to the impact of logistics demand,builded logistics demand index system,used gray correlation,RBF neural network and gray prediction methods to predict logistics demand of Guangxi under the ASEAN background.The specific research conclusions are as follows.First,research the effects of trades in Guangxi and ASEAN to economic and logistics of Guangxi.In view of the strategic position of Guangxi in the Guangxi-ASEAN free trade area,from the point of commodity structure,import and export volume and investment status in Guangxi and ASEAN trade,Guangxi economy,logistics and Guangxi-ASEAN trade import and export volume were gray correlation analysis,the results show that trade between Guangxi and ASEAN has played a crucial role in Guangxi logistics demand and economic development.Second,construct the index system of logistics demand in Guangxi under the ASEAN background.Based on affecting factors of regional logistics demand,construct the size and structure of the index system of logistics demand,use gray theory analysis the correlation between regional logistics and its main impact factor.Third,predict the size and structure of demand logistics demand in Guangxi under the ASEAN background.The dealing with defects of traditional method in time series forecasting problems,use the RBF neural network construct model,forecast logistics demand under the Guangxi and ASEAN background,with the GM(1,1)and BP neural network forecasting method to comparise,the predicted results better.Forth,use the regression to analysis the impact of Guangxi and ASEAN trade to scale and structure of logistics demand.From the point of size and structure of logistics demand,construct regression model between Guangxi and ASEAN trade volume with logistics demand,further affecting the model of the bilateral trade volume between Guangxi and ASEAN to the structure and size of logistics demand.