| "Agricultural development,increasing peasants 'income,and rural prosperity" have always been the focus of China's socio-economic development.Among them,increasing farmers' income is the key to solve the three rural issues.With the acceleration of agricultural modernization and urbanization,farmland conversion has been rapidly promoted and applied as a new method of land resource allocation.It has played an important role in solving the problems of extensive use of land resources and low agricultural operation efficiency,and it has been the research direction of the government and many scholars,that hope to promote large-scale management,release rural labor,change the traditional land management model through the farmland conversion,which can achieve modern agricultural development and increase farmers' income.In order to further prosper the conversion market and promote the process of farmland conversion,the central and local governments have successively issued a series of policies to "standardize,guide,encourage,and speed up" the conversion of land contractual management rights and the development of moderate-scale operations.Encouraged by various policies,the rate of the national farmland conversion has increased from 2.9% in 1992 to 39% in 2018,and the scale of conversion reached more than 530 million mu.But at the same time,many prominent problems such as irregular conversion market,poor information,and excessive government intervention have also accompanied the gradual slowdown in the growth rate of farmland conversion.From the macro goals of policy formulation,regulating the market of farmland conversion,narrowing the rural income gap,and increasing the income of farmers is one of the goals of policy implementation.From the micro-decision goals of farmers' families,improving family income is also the most important way to achieve family welfare in Pareto.Excellent intrinsic motivation and studying the impact mechanism of farmland conversion decision-making behavior and verifying its effect on the income level and income gap of farmer households has important theoretical and practical significance for achieving sustainable income growth for farmers,reducing the gap between the rich and the poor in rural areas,and realizing rural rejuvenation.Therefore,on the basis of large-scale farmer household surveys,this paper makes use of data from farmer household survey questionnaires,by using the method of mathematical statistical analysis,Heckman twostage model,endogenous transformation model,and regression-based Shapley value to verify the formation mechanism of farmland conversion decision-making behavior,estimate the impact of farmland conversion on the household income level and income gap of rural households.The research conclusions and policy recommendations of this paper are as follows:(1)The farmland conversion market in the eastern region of Hubei Province is relatively developed.The farmland conversion rate is higher than the national average.There are obvious differences in the level of farmland conversion in various regions,and the models and types of farmland conversion present diversified characteristics,but there are still problems such as the small scale of conversion and the irregular market.(2)The decision-making behavior of farmers' farmland conversion is affected by many factors:(1)From the factors whether farmers participate in farmland conversion,education level,agricultural machinery value,and medical insurance recognition degree has significantly affection of farmers' farmland flow-in.The age of the head of households and the degree of social security dependence has significantly affection of farmers' farmland flow-out.The number of family laborers,the proportion of dependent population,the degree of occupational differentiation,the degree of income differentiation,the area of its own arable land,policy cognition,and topographical characteristics are all key factors affecting the decision-making of farmers' farmland conversion;(2)From the factors that influence the intensity of farmers' farmland conversion,The age of the head of household,education level,number of family laborers,social relations,agricultural machinery value,medical insurance approval level,and duration of conversion significantly affect the decision-making intensity of farmers' farmland flow-in.The area of own cultivated land,the degree of dependence on social security,the price and form of conversion,and topographical characteristics significantly affect the decision-making of farmland flow-out.The differentiation characteristics and cognitive characteristic variables are important factors that influent the intensity decision-making of farmland conversion.(3)The income level of farmers can be effectively increased by farmland conversion.The farmland conversion has a significant positive impact on the household income.After conversion,the total household income level and net income level have respectively increased by 13.3% and 11.5%.From the perspective of the ATT effect of different behaviors,the total income level and net income level of rural households with flow-in behavior increased by 14.1% and 9.6%,while the total income level and net income level of rural households with flow-out behavior increased respectively 8.2% and 7.4%.In addition,from the ATU estimation results,if the non-transferred households have the opportunity to participate in farmland conversion,both the total household income as the result variable and the household net income as the result variable ATT are significantly larger than the ATU.It indicates that the farmers will select the model of farmland conversion based on their respective comparative advantages during the conversion decision-making process.(4)The variables of labor force,land,family asset value,agricultural machinery value,and urban GDP per capita have a significant positive impact on the household income of farmers who participate in the farmland conversion,and age and terrain characteristics have a significant negative impact;As for the families who participated in conversion,the education level,family size,health status,land,family asset value,agricultural machinery value,urban GDP per capita,and secondary and tertiary industry increase indexes have a positive impact,and the proportion of the dependent population has negative effects.(5)By analyzing the influencing factors of rural household income gap based on Shapley's value decomposition method,the results show that the head household characteristic variable and household human capital are the main reasons for the widening of the rural household income gap.Their contribution values are 37.16% and 19.89%,respectively.The conversion variable contributes 15.29% to the income gap of peasant households,ranking third,indicating that although conversion is not a key variable to reduce the peasant household income gap,it also plays an important role in it.The contribution of regional characteristic variables and household resource endowment characteristic variables to the income gap of rural households ranked fourth and fifth,and their contribution values are 14.56% and 13.10%.Under the premise of considering fairness and efficiency,in order to promote the effective farmland conversion and increase the income of farmers,combined with the above research conclusions,we put forward the following suggestions: First,improving the conversion market and reducing the risk of farmers' farmland conversion behavior through measures such as stabilizing rent levels and establishing a complete conversion transaction platform.Second,improving the participation of farmers in the farmland conversion through measures such as optimizing the guarantee system for the conversion,improving rural financial policies,and labor support policies;finally,it should be widened by optimizing the continuing education system in rural areas and developing local industries with local conditions channels for increasing farmers' income. |
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