Research On The Linkage And Cross-border Influencing Factors Of House Prices In Central Cities Of The Guangdong-hong Kong-macao Greater Bay Area

On March 5,2017,Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council officially identified the integrated development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an important strategy.On February 18,2019,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Outline for the Development Planning of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area".With the gradual implementation of the plan,the cities in the Greater Bay Area in areas such as finance,commerce,logistics,transportation,culture,and industry The integration of the city will be further strengthened.At the same time,the connectivity of the real estate market in each city will gradually deepen.The change in house prices in one city will have a joint impact on house prices in similar cities.Therefore,this dissertation studies the linkage of housing prices among cities in the GuangdongHong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,and explores the influencing factors of housing price linkage between cross-border cities.This dissertation uses Granger causality test,VAR model regression,pulse analysis and other methods to link house prices in the five core cities of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from January 2012 to March 2016 and April 2016 to February 2020.Conducted research and analysis.The results show that Hong Kong plays a relatively leading role in the entire Greater Bay Area,Shenzhen plays a relatively leading role in the Pearl River Delta,leads each other broadly and deeply,and Macau also has a synergistic effect on the neighboring Zhuhai.Based on the previous conclusion,on the basis of the cross-border impact of changes in housing prices in Hong Kong on Shenzhen and Guangzhou,the specific factors through which the linkage of housing prices are influenced are specifically explored.They affect Hong Kong,Shenzhen and Hong Kong and Guangzhou from January 2012 to December 2018.The item data is established based on the economic fundamentals of house price influencing factor model for verification.The results show that the factors influencing the transmission of housing prices between Hong Kong and Shenzhen,namely,the best lending rate in Hong Kong,the exchange rate of RMB against Hong Kong dollars,and the average price of the previous period in Hong Kong,have an impact on the price changes in Shenzhen.The cross-border influencing factors of Hong Kong and Guangzhou are the same as those of Hong Kong and Shenzhen,but Guangzhou's cross-border impact on Hong Kong is lower than that of Hong Kong on Shenzhen.Based on the above research,this dissertation gives the conclusion that there are too many real estate bubbles in Shenzhen and Guangzhou to provide a basis for the regulatory authorities to formulate policies;guide the promotion of rational development of the market and fully consider the impact of inter-city factors on the real estate market.