Computational Experimental Research On Dynamic Evaluation Of Benefit Of PPP Projects Based On WTP

Public-Private Partnership can effectively alleviate the government's financial pressure on infrastructure construction,and it also can improve resource allocation efficiency and quality of public product and their supply efficiency.PPP plays a significant role of infrastructure supplement and resolving government debt,which solves the problem of quality and efficiency of urban construction management.However,in the implementation process of some PPP projects,government and social capital have disputes because the project benefit is inconsistent with expectations,which is detrimental to the service level of public goods causing the decline of willingness to pay(WTP)of the public and PPP projects failure.Therefore,this paper analyzes and summarizes the connotation and constituent elements of PPP project benefit,and analyzes the relationship between WTP and the benefit of PPP projects by analyzing the content and use of WTP.Based on the combination of agent modeling and system dynamics(SD)modeling,a dynamic evaluation model of PPP project benefit based on WTP was constructed,and the results were analyzed and applied.The main research contents and results of this paper include:(1)Determination of research objects,research objectives and methods.Through the literature review of the research on the current status of PPP project benefits,the shortcomings and trends of the existing research are summarized.Based on this,this paper determines the research object and research objectives of this paper.The research methods used in this paper are reviewed,which provides technical support for the determination of follow-up research ideas and designs the research framework of this paper.(2)Analysis and definition of PPP project benefits.On the basis of literature review,the connotation of PPP project benefit is defined.The benefits of PPP project is divided into direct benefit and indirect benefit.The direct benefit factor of PPP project is composed of the project financial indicators.The rooted theory is used to study the indirect benefit structure of PPP project.The literature analysis and related theories are used to analyze the influencing factors of PPP project benefits,which provides theoretical support for the construction of the subsequent PPP project benefit dynamic evaluation system.(3)Analysis of the relationship between the WTP for PPP projects and the benefit of PPP projects.From the perspective of the connotation and model of consumer purchase behavior,this paper analyzes the source and influencing factors of the public's willingness to pay.Based on the analysis of the correlation between the benefit and WTP of PPP project,the benefit calculation model of PPP project based on WTP is constructed.(4)Construction of benefit evaluation model of PPP project based on WTP.Using the financial elements of the project and its relationship as the basic parameters of the direct benefit system of the PPP project,the system dynamics method is used to construct the PPP project benefit evaluation model.From the perspective of the factors affecting the willingness to pay,the public survey is conducted to obtain the influence of the public's own characteristics and project cognition as the basic information of the public agent and the behavioral rule attributes.The multi-agent public willingness to pay measurement model is constructed.Using the data of the proportion of willing payers,the multi-agent model and the SD model are combined to construct an computational experimental model for the dynamic evaluation of PPP project benefit.(5)Application and verification of the experimental model for dynamic evaluation of PPP project benefit.Firstly,based on the basic data of the case,the data of the public agent's willingness to pay evolution model was obtained through field investigation.Considering the change of the basic information of the public agent under the influence of time,the quantitative and analysis of the revenue of the PPP project based on dynamic WTP was realized.Secondly,through the sensitivity analysis of various factors of direct income of PPP projects,the degree of influence on direct income is obtained and the key factors affecting the direct income of PPP project are found out.Through the parameter change experiment on the public agent variables,the influence degree of communication efficiency and random connection probability on the evolution of the public agent's willingness to pay is obtained.By adjusting the project pricing,combined with the changes in passenger flow and public WTP,changes in the benefit of PPP projects under different project prices are measured,and the proposals for project pricing are given.Finally,according to the above adjustments to the various factors of PPP project benefit,important conclusions and reasonable and effective optimization solutions for PPP project benefit are given from the perspective of the key factors affecting the benefit of PPP projects.