Simulation Research On Incentive Policy Optimization Of Green Housing Market From Low-carbon Perspective

In recent years,the issue of global warming caused by carbon emissions has attracted the attention of all countries.As the country with the largest amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the world,China is under great pressure to reduce its emissions.As one of the three major energy-consuming industries in the society,the construction industry has an unshirkable responsibility for energy conservation and emission reduction.Therefore,the development of green building has become the inevitable choice for the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry,and also it has become an important carrier for energy conservation and emission reduction in urban and rural construction in China.However,the development of the green housing market in Xi'an is relatively slow.The international practice shows that the incentive policy plays an important role in promoting the development of the green housing market.So it is currently urgent for Xi'an to solve the problem that how to adopt effective policies to promote the rapid development of the green housing market and to realize urban lowcarbon ecological development.The green housing market system has a complex structure involving suppliers,demanders,governments,and many other factors.According to the characteristics of the development of green housing market in China,the paper uses system dynamics method to divide the green housing market into five subsystems: economy,market,technology,carbon emission and policy,and analyzes the causal relationship among these factors in the system.On this basis,the system dynamics equation is established by using the relevant data of Xi'an green housing market to realize the computer simulation of the model.According to the current status of green housing policies in various provinces and cities,this paper discusses the effectiveness of credit policy,the tax policy,the financial subsidy policy and the floor area rate policy on the development of green residential market and the carbon emission reduction these policies brought about from the perspective of developers and consumers.By adjusting policy parameters,and analyzing the changing trend of the target variables,this paper proposes an optimized combination of policy strategies to provide effective measures for energy conservation and emission reduction of buildings.The results show that:(1)Under the current policy of only implementing financial subsidies in Xi'an,green housing development is slow.After 2025,the market share has been significantly improved,and the market has a lot of room for development.However,the emission reduction effect is not significant;(2)Preferential development tax,floor area rate reward,and preferential development loan interest rate have led to a significant increase in the supply of green housing,achieving construction carbon emission reduction;the preferential interest rate of house purchase loan has a great effect on the demand of green house,while the financial subsidy and the preferential tax and fee of new house purchase make no obvious promoting effect,however,the more the financial subsidy is tilted towards the developer,the better the effect is;(3)If the incentive cost is considered,the optimal adjustment range of the development loan interest rate,house purchase loan interest rate,development tax rate,and the floor area rate are 30%,20%,20%,and 5% respectively.In order to meet the requirements of the 13 th Five-Year Plan of Xi'an,this paper proposes two kinds of comprehensive policies: the maximum marginal benefit policy and the maximum scale policy.The maximum scale policy has a slightly better incentive effect than the maximum marginal benefit policy,but the incentive cost is much higher.Therefore,this paper proposes to give priority to the maximum marginal benefit policy.At last,based on the simulation results,the paper proposes policy suggestions for improving the development of green housing market in China.