Baoding’s Industrial Carbon Emissions Measurement And Simulation Scenario Aanalysis

In recent years, global climate change and global warming issues anomaly being theworld ’s attention and concern. The main cause of these problems is unrestrained humancaused greenhouse gas emissions, of which carbon dioxide is most serious. Low-carbonurban development has become the main direction of our country emission reduction. Asa major industrial city of Baoding, it is China’s first batch of low-carbon pilot cities;while industrial energy consumption accounts for a large city overall energy consumption.By studying Baoding’s industrial carbon emissions situation can lead to explore the roadof low-carbon industrial development, so as to provide a certain level of emissions ofother provinces and cities of the theoretical and technical support.By making a lot of basic research and literatures, we studied reseach the status fromcarbon emission impact factors, the carbon emission calculation methods and analyticalmodels and the use of carbon system dynamics model three aspects. Compare the IPCCinventory method, measurement method, based on mass balance and the directcalculation method based on energy balance of advantages and disadvantages of thesefour methods, we chose the right method to calculate the carbon emission situation ofBaoding from2005to2010.According to the results of Baoding industrial carbon emissions, we found that thetotal amount of carbon emissions Baoding industrial growth through the increase ordecrease after the first process by anlysis. And industrial emissions account less volatilefor all carbon emissions in Baoding proportion, while it remained at around42%;Baoding decoupling index of industrial carbon emissions tended to decrease by industrialcarbon emissions decoupling index analysis. It reflects the Baoding in consciousadjustment of industrial structure and to be making it increasingly in low-carbonsustainable development. Set reasonable assumptions, we use system dynamicssimulation model to construct a reasonable Baoding industrial carbon emissions, andthrough historical data to verify its legitimacy. We from explore low-carbon industrialdevelopment direction of Baoding by set different scenarios from the change in theenergy structure factor, high energy-consuming enterprises and Industrial output growth.And the according to the result, we can make relevant reduction proposals.