Research On Credit Risk Of Entrepreneurship Guaranteed Loan

Guaranteed loan for entrepreneurship is an important policy to promote entrepreneurship and bring employment.Since its launch in 2002,it has been developing for nearly two decades.It has played an active role in promoting entrepreneurship and employment by initially supporting laid-off workers to start their own businesses and find employment,and now the scope of support has been expanded to include more than 10 groups such as migrant workers returning to their hometowns to start their own businesses,women starting their own businesses and college students starting their own businesses.At the same time,because its main way is to guarantee through the guarantee center,for small and medium-sized customers and other vulnerable groups credit,so that they can enter the credit market.This has increased the availability of credit for these small and medium-sized customers.Therefore,in the construction of inclusive financial system today,venture guarantee loan is undoubtedly an important part of the inclusive financial system.However,just as all credit activities inevitably have credit risks,so to realize the virtuous circle development of guaranteed loans,it is also faced with the problem of how to effectively control their credit risks.In theory,there are many factors that affect credit risk,both from the supply side,such as the bank itself,and from the demand side,that is,the customer side.However,as far as start-up guarantee loan is concerned,its business operation mode is relatively single.All over the venture guarantee center assumed the responsibility of customer qualification and loan investigation,the bank just according to the venture guarantee center recommended the implementation of the customer loan procedures,once the risk,directly through the allocation of security to cover.Therefore,risks are actually concentrated in the customer identification and loan investigation of the venture loan guarantee center.Therefore,how to identify the credit risk from the customer level,for the risk control of the venture loan guarantee center is very important.First of all,this paper reviews the development and operation mode of guaranteed loan for entrepreneurship.Then by referring to the traditional credit risk factors and identification,the author compares,summarizes and summarizes the factors and identification of the credit risk of guaranteed loans.Then,through the expert scoring method,questionnaire survey,and field understanding,14 risk influencing factors that may have an impact on the repayment probability were selected.Then the principal component analysis model and the logic analysis model are used to construct the credit risk assessment model of guaranteed loan.Principal component analysis model is used to solve the collinearity problem among various risk factors.A logical analysis model is used to estimate the probability of customer's repayment.According to the obtained Logistic formula,the default probability can be obtained by simply inputting the customer information.Then can play a guiding role in the decision-making of credit,more scientific consideration of whether to loan,loan amount;Then,based on the empirical analysis results and the problems faced by the current venture guarantee center,we give Suggestions on how to better manage the risks faced by the venture guarantee center.Suggestions are mainly divided into five aspects: the first aspect is to build a good credit environment;The second aspect is to establish an independent information platform for the entrepreneurship guarantee center.Specifically,it proposes to strengthen the integration of information resources,build an independent information platform and mine the potential value of data.The third aspect is to strengthen the talent training and introduction;The fourth aspect is to focus on the entrepreneurial training of borrowers;The fifth aspect is to innovate anti-guarantee methods and prevent and control risks reasonably and effectively.Finally,the thesis is summarized and prospected.