Research On Feasibility Gap Subsidy Calculation Of Urban Utility Tunnel PPP Project Based On Risk Quantification

In recent years,as an emerging modern municipal infrastructure,urban utility tunnel has set off a construction boom nationwide.Urban utility tunnel can effectively solve the current frequent "road zipper" and other problems,effectively improve the urban environment,improve the living standard of the people.However,there is a large one-time investment in the early stage of utility tunnel construction,and the later stage of operation also requires appropriate professional level.In order to relieve the financial pressure of local governments and effectively improve the quality of public services,urban utility tunnel projects are mostly operated in PPP mode.The feasibility gap subsidy is the mainstream investment return mechanism of urban utility tunnel PPP project.Whether the calculated result of the subsidy is reasonable is directly related to the smooth implementation of the project.At present,the feasibility gap subsidy based on the financial calculation,more subjective qualitatively given key parameters,such as reasonable profit margin,return on comprehensive through subsidies,gap,the feasibility of parameters calculated this measure failed to fully consider the influence of uncertain factors in the process of project implementation.Moreover,for projects with different risk levels and different levels of risk borne by social capital,the same set of standards is adopted to calculate,which makes the estimated feasibility gap subsidy in the project implementation process not completely reasonable and leaves hidden trouble for the smooth implementation of the project.Based on this,this paper studies the risk factors during the cooperation period of the project,quantifies the risk factors borne by the social capital into the feasibility gap subsidy calculation,and constructs a feasibility gap subsidy calculation model that fully considers the impact of risk factors.It is expected to provide a new way to calculate the feasibility gap subsidy for urban utility tunnel PPP project,ensure the reasonable profit of social capital,encourage social capital to strengthen the management of risk factors,improve the operation efficiency,and ultimately contribute to the success of the project.First of all,this paper reviews the risk research on PPP projects at home and abroad,the theoretical system of PPP project feasibility gap subsidy,and the current mainstream feasibility gap subsidy calculation method.The research finds the shortcomings of the current calculation method and the deficiencies of the existing research,and defines the research focus and content of this paper.Secondly,from the perspective of the SPV,this paper determines the risk bearers and defines the research stage of project risk,identifies the risk factors during the PPP project cooperation period of the comprehensive management corridor through literature research and work decomposition,and uses ABC classification to screen the risk factors.After that,the initial sharing scheme of risk factors between public and private was determined by literature research method,and the ANP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was designed to calculate the proportion of risk allocation between public and private,so as to complete the research on risk allocation.Thirdly,the net present value method is used as the basic method to calculate the feasibility gap subsidy,and the key factors of calculating the feasibility gap subsidy are analyzed by the net present value method.Monte Carlo risk quantification model,according to the social capital risk determine the risk factors of input variable,establish set-valued statistics method combined with expert interview estimated probability of risk factors and risk input variable probability distribution parameters,the method of constructing the target variables that measure elements of risk influence value expressions,of social capital through Monte Carlo simulation to complete party for quantitative analysis of risk factors.Then,the risk impact value of each calculation element is introduced into the calculation,and the feasibility gap subsidy calculation model of urban utility tunnel PPP project is constructed based on risk quantification,and the verification method of the model calculation result is introduced.Finally,the method system and feasibility gap subsidy calculation model constructed in this paper are applied through the practical utility tunnel PPP project case.Using crystal ball software simulation from risk affect the value of each measuring elements calculated risk factors will affect the value to calculate model feasibility gap year equal subsidy,the calculation results are the PPP value of quantitative evaluation and government financial capacity,and comparing with the feasibility of practical implementation gap benefits analysis,analysis verified the feasibility of this model gap benefits calculated result is completely feasible,thus verified the model has a certain reasonable applicability.