Research On The Influence Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation On The Development Potential Of China's Export Manufacturing Industry

Manufacturing industry is the main body of national economy.To improve the competitiveness of manufacturing industry in the world is the important way to build a strong country.With the comprehensive promotion and implementation of the ?Chinese manufacturing industry 2025? action program,China's manufacturing industry is entering a new stage.In recent years,China's high-speed rail manufacturing,satellite manufacturing and other projects have been exported abroad.In the process,high-end manufacturing has been developed and upgraded more rapidly.Therefore,in the new era,the smooth export of these high-end manufacturing industries is particularly important for the overall development of China's manufacturing industry.The exchange rate and exports are closely linked.The fluctuation of exchange rate will directly affect China's import and export manufacturing industry.Under the background of the current epidemic situation and the unstable economic situation,the exchange rate market fluctuates violently,especially the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation is large and the fluctuation frequency is high,which has caused severe challenges to China's export manufacturing industry.Therefore,in the context of the new period,how the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will affect the development of China's export manufacturing industry is a question worth pondering.This paper intends to use two models to study the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the development of China's export manufacturing industry.It mainly includes three parts: First,this article selects the exchange rate of RMB to USD,Japanese Yen,South Korean won,Australian Dollar,Euro,Russian Ruble,and Brazilian Real under the direct price method from 2009 to 2018,and obtains theirs Exchange rate volatility by establishing the ARMA-EGARCH model.Second,construct a stochastic frontier gravity model,and incorporate the value and the volatility of the exchange rate into the trade inefficiency as the main explanatory variables,and the trade value of China's export manufacturing industry as the explanatory variable to study the impact of exchange rate changes on the export manufacturing trade potential,empirical analysis finds that appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and excessive exchange rate volatility will reduce China's manufacturing export trade volume and hinder the development of China's export manufacturing trade;Third,choose 71 export manufacturing companies whose export revenues accounted for more than 35% of the total revenue for 10 consecutive years from WIND.The company's Tobin Q value was used as the explanatory variable,and exchange rate fluctuations were used as the main explanatory variables.Build model for enterprise development to study the impact of exchange rate changes on the development potential of export manufacturing company,and find the RMB exchange rate volatility's increasing will not reduce the selected company's Tobin's Q.