Study On Comprehensive Evaluation And Optimized Path Of Resource And Environmental Carrying Capacity In Yunnan Province

Resources are the foundation of economic development,and the environment is the prerequisite for human survival.Both are also constraints to social and economic development.The advancement of science and technology,the improvement of social productivity,the increase of population and the rapid development of economy have destroyed the ecological environment,excessively consumed resources,and brought the resource and environmental carrying capacity to the limit.With the proposal of the “Belt and Road” initiative,Yunnan Province,as the radiation center of China facing South and Southeast Asia,has become an important area for gathering various resources.The environment is further stressed.Therefore,it is necessary to study the resource and environmental carrying capacity in Yunnan Province to ensure the sustainable development of social economy based on the sustainable use of resources and environment.This article takes sustainable development theory,green development theory,regional coordinated development theory and other theories as support,according to the actual situation of Yunnan Province and the conceptual connotation of resource and environmental carrying capacity,the resource environment of Yunnan Province is constructed from three aspects of life,production and ecology.Evaluation system of bearing capacity.Using the principal component analysis method and the entropy value method combined with the TOPSIS model,a comprehensive evaluation of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of 16 states(cities)in Yunnan Province from 2008 to 2017 was carried out.With the support of MATALB,GIS and other software,the Carry out the analysis of the spatial and temporal pattern of the resource and environmental carrying capacity at the city level,and put forward different policy recommendations for each state(city).According to the evaluation results of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of Yunnan Province,the SD model of Yunnan Province was constructed,and different development paths were designed.Using 2013-2017 as the historical verification period,VENSIM software was used to evaluate the resources,environment and society of Yunnan Province from 2018 to 2035.Simulate the economic situation and propose countermeasures.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)The definition of the resource and environmental carrying capacity in this article is to ensure the reasonable development and utilization of resources and the virtuous cycle of the ecological environment.The resources and environment of a specific area can carry human production,life and ecology within a certain period.On the basis of summarizing and analyzing the existing problems of the physical geography and socio-economic profile of Yunnan Province,a multi-level resource and environment carrying capacity index evaluation system was constructed,consisting of life,production and ecological subsystems at the field level The layer is composed of 54 indicators that reflect the socio-economic development and resource and environmental conditions.(2)Constructed a comprehensive evaluation model of resource and environmental carrying capacity,and used principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of 54 evaluation indicators.In three subsystems,a total of 15 comprehensive indicators were selected.The entropy method is used to determine the two-layer weight of the comprehensive index.The largest weight is the ecological subsystem,followed by the living subsystem.(3)The resource and environmental carrying capacity of Yunnan Province fluctuated at a relatively low level from 2008 to 2017.The production subsystem carrying capacity index and the changes in resource and environmental carrying capacity remained in step with each other,and were relatively backward,while the ecological subsystem carrying capacity index was 1-2 years ahead.The bearing index of production subsystems in 16 states(cities)continued to be at a low level in time,with a spatial pattern of high in Yunnan and low in southwestern Yunnan;the bearing index of living subsystems showed a large periodic fluctuation in time and spatial The patterns of Yuxi and Dali are high and the surroundings are low;the ecological subsystem carrying index shows a periodic fluctuation in the middle level in time,and the pattern of Dehong and Baoshan is high in space and low in northwestern Yunnan.The resource and environmental carrying capacity of 16 states(cities)showed periodic fluctuations at a low level in time,and the spatial pattern was high in Yunnan and low around the surroundings.The strength of the power can be divided into 16 levels of 16 states(cities),and different policy recommendations are proposed for these four levels of states(cities).(4)According to the comprehensive evaluation results of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of Yunnan Province,considering the system's causal feedback relationship,construct the SD model of Yunnan Province.16 control variables are selected,and four development paths are designed,namely maintaining the status quo(path 1),socio-economic and efficient type(path 2),resource saving,environmental protection(path 3),and comprehensive coordination type(path 4).Through simulation,the development status of Yunnan Province from 2018 to 2035 can be obtained.From the perspective of social economy,water and land resources,water environment,and energy consumption,path 3 and path 4 can be selected,but in consideration of not exceeding resource consumption,Under the premise of environmental pollution planning goals,path 3 is better than path 4,and four development suggestions are proposed for path 3.