| With the continuous development of science and technology,and the progress of human civilization,the photoelectric telescope can not only provide human with the tool requirements for exploring space and space mysteries,but can also catalog space debris,provide collision warning for space vehicles,and monitor and detect the foreign spy satellites.Therefore,the development of optoelectronic telescope is of great significance to scientific research,civil and also military fields in China.However,the development cycle of photoelectric telescope is long and there are many uncertain activities,which brings great challenges to the progress control and management for this project.Through consulting a large number of literature and analysis,it is found that a scientific and reasonable plan is the basis to ensure the completion of the project on schedule.Through the analysis and research of the mainstream planning technology and method,PERT technology is very suitable for the planning of optoelectronic telescope.In this paper,based on the comparative study of milestone event control,PERT technology is improved,and the "deviation correction model of uncertain activity" and "correction model of introducing time background" are constructed for uncertain activity and environmental factor control.First of all,the importance of milestone event control is used to make a comparative study in the improvement of PERT technology,and the accurate results are obtained.Then five improved PERT methods are generated by using the principle of 3σ to complete probability curve and the actual completion time.The results show that the improved technology can analyze the plan of optical electric telescope in advance,make the plan scientific and reasonable,and effectively conduct Milestone event control,which can detect deviation in time,continuously improve the plan,and lay a good theoretical basis and guidance for the follow-up research.Secondly,it is found that the deviation caused by uncertain activities cannot be eliminated when the above methods are applied to the "installation and debugging in the Institute".Therefore,the decision matrix of uncertain factors is transformed into the opportunity loss matrix by using the "Savanda Criterion" in economics,and the "repair of uncertain activities based on Savanda Criterion " is constructed by calculating the minimum and maximum regret value Positive model.Afterwards,theactivities on the critical path are modified,and then the probability curve of completion before and after the repair is verified by using the 3σ principle.The results shows that the model has a good correction effect on uncertain activities.Thirdly,while when applying the "modification model of Savanda Criterion for uncertain activities" to the "field installation and commissioning" activities which are basically the same as the installation and commissioning work in the Institute,it is found that the deviation between the plan and the actual work is very large.After analysis and research,it is found that the main reason is that the impact of the site environment factors on the progress is not considered,so the "improved PERT model with time background” is constructed,which combines the factors affecting the telescope installation and adjustment with the climatic and meteorological conditions on site,revises the plan through the methods of influence degree and weighting coefficient,and analyzes and verifies the effect of the improved PERT model with the introduction of time background in combination with "field installation and adjustment".The results show that the model has a good effect on the activities greatly affected by precipitation and temperature. |
