| Food is the basic demand to survive, and food security is a complex system concerning of supply, demand, circulation and trade. And now food trade has made a more and more important point in opening economy. The goal of this thesis is to analysis of the current situation of China's grain trade and food production and demand study, and to set up China's grain trade in food security in the country and the world grain market on the basis of the grain trade to make our country more effectively sustained development. In order to achieve this goal we use the methods of data analysis and logistic prediction to make prediction of food production and consumption in medium and long-term and build food security early warning indicator system and method to make integrated judgments. In this paper, we explore the degree of food trade, and make recommendations with taking into account the possibility of domestic demand and supply gap and the impact factors of China's food trade.As the problem of international grain trade, the article gives an analysis framework from four viewpoints: interests,economic,market and security and outlines the main features and influencing factors of China's grain international trade. The conclusions show that: on the one hand, it is economic for China to develop international grain trade, but China has no grain relative advantages in international trade. With respect of the market and the domestic foreign currency reserves, China is able to get grain from outside world. The risk of foreign grain embargo will not be a threat to China's grain security.In the light of the analysis in theory and in practice, the article thinks that China food security is well in medium and long-term, food consumption increases more quickly than food production at home and abroad according to current food trend. But world food potential production can meet the food consumption. That means the international food environment is austere to China food international trade. However, if we have enough capital to support the food import and export trade, China's food security situation will become better. In the view of the above, the article discovers ways and measures of improving the grain public policies in China, the role of the policy implication is to realize combination and mutual complementary of market, government and producers. Accordingly, China should maintain grain of security by the relative marketed reform with the regulation and adjustment of government. So that China's food trade will has a more effective and sustained development under the principle of appropriate imports and basic self-sufficiency. |
