Research On The Influence Of Basic Pension Scheme On Urban Families' Debts

Due to the decreasing birthrate of the population,the speed of aging in China has been accelerating.As a result,the burden of old-age care has been so heavy that many families are unable to bear all.But the basic pension scheme protects residents' basic subsistence in later years.The basic pension scheme affects the families' economic behaviors by regulating the consumption and savings in two phases(ie,working and retirement),while debt consumption in family economic behavior has become a common way of balancing income and expenditure.Since the borrowing behavior needs to be guaranteed by future cash flows,what kind of impact does the basic pension insurance have on the debt behavior of urban families? If there is a relationship,what is the mechanism of action? This article will answer the questions from theoretical and empirical aspects.Based on the OLG model,this paper firstly explains the mechanism that basic pension affected household lending behaviors: basic pension improves the expectation of future income,thus the increase of pre-consumption behavior leads to frequent borrowing behaviors.And the borrowing constraints formed by pension contributions and the reduction in disposable income will lead to the decline in consumption and lending behavior.On the empirical side,this paper uses the data of CFPS in 2014 to examine the impact of the retirement insurance on household debt behaviors through Probit and Tobit models.Results show that the retirement insurance,especially endowment insurance system for the urban working group has a significant positive effect on the choice and degree of urban household borrowing.At the same time,the basic pension insurance will have a heterogeneity on the lending behavior of urban households with different age structures and income structures.Families with high children,old dependency ratio will increase the probability and degree of borrowing,so do low-income family.In addition,the retirement insurance will also significantly increase the level of household housing debt,which is more pronounced in single-suite families and not significant in multi-suite families.Finally,the paper gives corresponding policy recommendations based on the research conclusions.