| According to statistics from the People's Bank of China,as of the end of2018,the balance of personal real estate mortgage loans of commercial banks was 28.99 trillion yuan,a year-on-year increase of 17.32%,an increase of 3.42 times over 2010.The explosive growth of personal real estate mortgage loans has brought substantial benefits to commercial banks and has a positive effect on the profit contribution of commercial banks.However,the crazy expansion of personal real estate mortgage loans has also buried the credit risks of commercial banks.Hidden dangers.Credit risk is an important risk faced by commercial banks in their daily operations.It refers to the risk that a counterpart of a commercial bank will not perform its due debt due to its own problems.The essence of personal real estate mortgage loans is the relationship of borrowing and lending.Once the commercial bank's counterpart cannot fulfill the obligation of repaying the mortgage loan on a regular basis,the commercial bank will face severe personal real estate mortgage credit risk.Although China's real estate market is developing rapidly,market prices and liquidity are very good,but with the implementation of real estate tax reform and other policies,real estate holding costs will rise,market prices and liquidity will face greater challenges,which will undoubtedly give The credit risk ofcommercial real estate mortgage loans has brought a severe test.This paper focuses on the research and discussion of the credit risk of personal real estate mortgage loans,from the concept and theory of real estate mortgage credit risk,introduces the theoretical model of real estate mortgage credit risk,and analyzes the situation of commercial real estate mortgage loans in China.Understand the current status of personal real estate mortgages.Then,from the four aspects of macroeconomic factors,industry fluctuation factors,loan characteristics and borrower characteristics,the impact of these four factors on the credit risk of personal real estate mortgage loans is analyzed.At the same time,according to the analysis of influencing factors,establish a logistic model of personal real estate mortgage loan credit risk,set research variables,select research sample data,and use logistic regression analysis to empirically study the influencing factors of personal real estate mortgage credit risk,and obtain the following conclusions: First,the macroeconomic factors that use the annual growth rate of GDP as a measure have a significant negative impact on the credit risk of personal real estate mortgage loans.Second,the real estate price index is a measure of the industry's volatility factors,which has a significant negative impact on the personal real estate mortgage credit risk.Third,the down payment ratio of loan characteristics has a significant negative impact on the personal real estate mortgage credit risk,while the loan interest rate,loan term and loan balance have a significant positive impact on the personal real estate mortgage credit risk.Fourth,the borrower's income,the borrower's academic level,the borrower's job title and the borrower's asset-liability ratio have a significant negative impact on the personal real estate mortgage credit risk,while the borrower's age is personally mortgaged.There is a significant positive impact on loan credit risk. |
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