| In 1996, New Zealand switched from a single member plurality (SMP) electoral system to a mixed member proportional (MMP) system. This thesis examines the impact of electoral reform on voter correctness using data from New Zealand Election Study (NZES) surveys conducted in 1990, 1993, 1996, 1999, and 2002. It is hypothesized that New Zealanders would have voted correctly more often in the latter three elections than during the first two, due to evidence showing that proportional systems, like MMP, contribute to system predictability and clarification of the signals sent out by political parties. Aggregate levels of the dependant variable, vote correctness, were compared during this time period using contingency tables. Simple least-squares regression provided an individual-level analysis while applying several statistical controls, including birth cohort, political interest, media exposure, household income, education, and major party support. The study revealed no difference in aggregate vote correctness under each system. However, voters supporting major parties voted correctly more consistently under MMP than under SMP, suggesting that electoral reform does affect voter behaviour. |
