| The benefit of short-term hydrologic forecast data is quantified for the purpose of improving drought management capabilities in surface water supply reservoirs. Combining systems engineering, decision theory, and information economics, this research documents how hydrologic forecasts can provide meaningful improvements in both efficiency and value to water storage and delivery without changing current infrastructure.;Using a generalized reservoir simulation model, the value of forecast information is quantified in terms of improvements to water supply delivery characteristics for a range of system types; forecasts are found to provide significant reductions in system vulnerability at the minor expense of a slight reduction in system reliability. Results from extensive water system simulations are used to develop multivariate regressions that characterize the general behavior of system performance indices in terms of forecast information, as well as watershed and system characteristics. The resulting relationships could be useful for systems in regions where water supply infrastructure is limited or inadequate to meet future drought conditions or demand trends. |
